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Bureau of Labor Statistics > Employment Projections > Data

Industry Projections Evaluation: 2014–24

BLS estimated models for about 300 detailed industries that were then summed to sectors and major sectors.¹ Detailed industry projections were constrained to sum to the total nonfarm wage and salary employment provided by the macroeconomic model.

Measuring accuracy

How often did BLS correctly project growth and decline for industries?

BLS correctly projected which major industry sectors would grow and which would decline 69 percent of the time.

The service-providing sector, representing about 86 percent of U.S. employment, was correctly projected to experience continued growth over the 2014–24 decade. However, within the service sectors, utilities, information, and federal government were all expected to decrease, but instead experienced growth. While BLS correctly predicted that the goods-producing sector as a whole would increase, BLS incorrectly predicted that mining would slightly increase and manufacturing would slightly decrease. Instead, mining saw an employment decline, and manufacturing saw employment growth.

What did BLS project as the nonagricultural wage and salary compound annual rate of growth from 2014 to 2024?

The projected compound annual growth rate from 2014 to 2024 was 0.6 percent.

What was the actual nonagricultural wage and salary compound annual rate of growth from 2014 to 2024?

The actual compound annual growth rate from 2014 to 2024 was 1.3 percent.

For each of the following measures the BLS projection was compared against this naïve model.

Table 1. All industry absolute percent error, 2014–24 (Employment in thousands)
Sector	Employment, 2024	Projected Employment, BLS, 2024	Projected Employment, Naïve, 2024	Absolute percent error, BLS	Absolute percent error, Naïve	Best performer
Nonagricultural wage and salary	158,569	149,132	137,946	6.0	13.0	BLS
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The BLS model was much closer to the actual 2024 employment than the Naïve model for total nonagricultural wage and salary employment. (See Table 1.) The BLS model also outperformed the Naïve model in most of the major sectors in the absolute percent error measurement. (See Table 2.) The major sectors where the BLS model did not outperform the Naïve model are utilities, educational services, leisure and hospitality, and federal government.

Table 2. Absolute percent error by major sector, 2014–24 (Employment in thousands)
Sector	Employment, 2024	Projected Employment, BLS, 2024	Projected Employment, Naïve, 2024	Absolute percent error, BLS	Absolute percent error, Naïve	Best performer
Mining	586	924	1,128	57.7	92.5	BLS
Construction	8,212	6,929	3,489	15.6	57.5	BLS
Manufacturing	12,817	11,374	8,430	11.3	34.2	BLS
Utilities	591	505	547	14.6	7.5	Naïve
Wholesale trade	6,145	6,151	5,537	0.1	9.9	BLS
Retail trade	15,532	16,129	14,579	3.8	6.1	BLS
Transportation and warehousing	6,655	4,777	4,613	28.2	30.7	BLS
Information	2,943	2,713	2,132	7.8	27.6	BLS
Financial activities	9,169	8,487	7,268	7.4	20.7	BLS
Professional and business services	22,621	20,986	20,064	7.2	11.3	BLS
Educational services	3,963	3,756	4,108	5.2	3.7	Naïve
Health care and social assistance	22,527	21,852	21,727	3.0	3.6	BLS
Leisure and hospitality	16,818	15,651	15,901	6.9	5.5	Naïve
Other services	6,616	6,662	6,211	0.7	6.1	BLS
Federal government	3,000	2,346	2,908	21.8	3.1	Naïve
State and local government	20,375	19,890	19,304	2.4	5.3	BLS
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Share analysis

Comparing the projected share of the labor market with the actual share helps to address whether BLS correctly predicted which industries were growing or declining. (See Chart 1.)

Share in percent of employment by major sector: historical base year 2014, projected Bureau of Labor Statistics 2024, and actual 2024

View Chart Data

Note

¹Sectors and major sectors are aggregations of NAICS industries.

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Last modified date: April 10, 2026