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Employment Projections
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Industry Projections: Summary of Evaluations
| Projections set | Correct |
|---|---|
|
2002-12 |
67% |
|
2004-14 |
75% |
|
2006-16 |
63% |
|
2008-18 |
81% |
| Projections set | Projected | Actual | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
|
2002-12 |
1.54% | 0.28% | 1.26% |
|
2004-14 |
1.33% | 0.56% | 0.77% |
|
2006-16 |
1.05% | 0.58% | 0.47% |
|
2008-18 |
1.01% | 0.84% | 0.18% |
| Industry (all wage and salary workers) | BLS absolute error | Naïve absolute error | Mean absolute error | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 2014 | 2016 | 2018 | 2012 | 2014 | 2016 | 2018 | BLS | Naïve | |
|
State and local government |
1.07% | 0.94% | 0.63% | 0.82% | 1.19% | 1.42% | 1.38% | 1.23% | 0.87% | 1.30% |
|
Federal government |
0.15% | 0.14% | 0.62% | 0.22% | 1.75% | 0.97% | 0.71% | 0.46% | 0.28% | 0.97% |
|
Other services |
1.37% | 0.84% | 0.99% | 0.76% | 1.44% | 1.38% | 1.08% | 0.51% | 0.99% | 1.10% |
|
Leisure and hospitality |
0.24% | 0.00% | 0.43% | 1.15% | 0.86% | 0.09% | 0.29% | 0.40% | 0.45% | 0.41% |
|
Health care and social assistance |
. | 0.26% | 0.06% | 0.06% | . | 0.36% | 0.48% | 1.40% | NA | NA |
|
Educational services |
. | 0.72% | 0.12% | 0.31% | . | 0.69% | 0.64% | 0.36% | NA | NA |
|
Education and health services |
0.31% | . | 0.23% | . | NA | NA | ||||
|
Professional and business services |
1.55% | 0.98% | 0.78% | 0.46% | 2.64% | 1.21% | 0.24% | 0.47% | 0.94% | 1.14% |
|
Financial activities |
1.24% | 1.10% | 1.45% | 0.16% | 1.84% | 1.74% | 1.44% | 0.66% | 0.99% | 1.42% |
|
Information |
4.13% | 2.50% | 1.56% | 0.97% | 5.71% | 3.99% | 1.29% | 1.41% | 2.29% | 3.10% |
|
Transportation and warehousing |
1.50% | 0.20% | 0.11% | 0.92% | 2.04% | 0.58% | 0.52% | 1.38% | 0.68% | 1.13% |
|
Retail |
1.44% | 0.83% | 0.11% | 0.11% | 1.99% | 0.98% | 0.33% | 0.11% | 0.63% | 0.85% |
|
Wholesale |
1.03% | 0.53% | 0.77% | 0.61% | 1.74% | 0.53% | 0.04% | 0.22% | 0.74% | 0.63% |
|
Utilities |
0.21% | 0.20% | 0.72% | 1.02% | 2.22% | 1.76% | 1.78% | 1.56% | 0.54% | 1.83% |
|
Service-providing |
1.07% | 0.69% | 0.38% | 0.15% | 1.43% | 0.86% | 0.37% | 0.31% | 0.57% | 0.74% |
|
Manufacturing |
2.36% | 1.05% | 0.27% | 0.37% | 2.85% | 0.09% | 2.26% | 3.78% | 1.01% | 2.25% |
|
Construction |
3.16% | 2.32% | 2.30% | 1.61% | 5.27% | 3.99% | 3.27% | 1.94% | 2.35% | 3.62% |
|
Mining |
5.79% | 5.74% | 0.14% | 1.07% | 6.32% | 6.59% | 0.98% | 1.59% | 3.18% | 3.87% |
|
Goods producing |
2.38% | 1.27% | 0.99% | 0.35% | 3.41% | 1.20% | 0.01% | 1.24% | 1.25% | 1.46% |
Last Modified Date: March 16, 2020