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Bureau of Labor Statistics > Employment Projections > Data

Macro Projections Evaluation: 2002–2012

BLS projects an economy at full employment. Therefore it is most informative to assess the accuracy of projections through comparisons to an economy at full employment, also known as potential values¹. Potential values are available for gross domestic product (GDP) and the unemployment rate for which comparisons are made below. Actual values are also included for these variables for reference. For more information, refer to our evaluation methodology.

GDP

The BLS 2012 projection of GDP was 4.9 percent higher than potential GDP² (See Table).
To assess whether a 4.9 percent difference is "good", a naïve model is used³. The naïve model was better, 3.6 percent higher than potential GDP.

Table 1. GDP projections, actual, and potential (in millions, $2009)
	Levels	CBO Potential Estimate
	Levels	Difference	in Percent
BLS 2002 projection	16,597	781	4.9
Naïve projection	16,382	566	3.6
Actual (BEA)	15,355	-461	-2.9
Potential (CBO)	15,815	.	.
Note: Data as of March 29, 2018.

Gross Domestic Product, historical and projected

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Unemployment Rate

BLS projected an unemployment rate of 5.2 percent, close to the potential unemployment rate of 5.1 percent.

Table 2. Unemployment rate, projected, actual, and potential
	Rate	CBO Potential Estimate
	Rate	Difference	in Percent
BLS 2002 projection	5.2	0.1	1.9
Actual	8.1	3.0	58.7
CBO Potential	5.1	.	.
Note: Data as of March 29, 2018.

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Note

¹ Potential values are estimated by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). For more information on the potential output assumption and how it relates to BLS projections see https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2017/article/full-employment-an-assumption-within-bls-projections.htm

² Projections in 2002 were done in 1996 dollars. CBO estimates are in 2009 dollars. The 2002 projections are reweighted to 2009 dollars in order to compare the two series.

³ For the naïve model, the average growth rate for CBO's potential GDP (at the base year) is calculated for the past 10 years, and projected forward 10 years from 2002.

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Last Modified Date: August 1, 2018