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Bureau of Labor Statistics > Employment Projections > Data

Occupational Projections Evaluation: 2004–2014

The main factor affecting occupational growth rates is the growth rate of the industries in which they are employed. But over time, industries also change the mix of occupations used to create their output. Occupational projections incorporate changes to both those factors. For more information, refer to our evaluation methodology.

Measuring Accuracy

How often did BLS correctly project growth and decline for occupations?

BLS correctly projected whether an occupations would grow or decline 82 percent of the time.

What did BLS project as the average growth rate from 2004 to 2014?

The projected average growth of occupations from 2004 to 2014 was 13.0 percent.

What was the actual average growth rate?

The actual average growth for occupations from 2004 to 2014 was 3.4 percent.

What contributed to the difference?

The recession of 2007-2009 reduced employment and slowed employment growth. Employment levels and the unemployment rate had not yet recovered from the recession. BLS projections assume full employment.

Was BLS able to project which occupations would grow relatively faster in spite of the differences between projected and actual growth?

BLS correctly projected which occupations would grow faster than the economy as a whole 58 percent of the time.

A standard for comparison

An important way to evaluate any projection is to compare it against other, similar projections. This is not possible for occupational projections because there are no comparable projections which are not in some way derived from BLS projections. When no comparable projection exists another way of evaluating is to compare against a naïve model. The occupational evaluation uses the occupational–share naïve model.

Different aspects of projections

In addition to detailed occupations, occupational projections were evaluated for:

Projections of major occupational groups
Projections of occupations combined based on the level of education and training BLS assigned in 2004

These two evaluations show how well BLS projected groups of related occupations. Each was compared to the occupational–share naïve model by summing the absolute differences from the actual result.

Table 1. Major occupational groups, combined scorecard
Measure	BLS	Naïve	Which performed better
Sum of absolute differences	5.3%	9.5%	BLS has a smaller sum of absolute differences for all major groups combined
Count of better score	17	5	BLS had a smaller sum of absolute differences for most major group

Table 2. Detailed occupations, combined scorecard
Measure	BLS	Naïve	Which performed better
Sum of absolute differences	13.6%	15.6%	BLS has a smaller sum of absolute differences for all detailed occupations combined
Count of better score	439	320	BLS had a smaller sum of absolute differences for most detailed occupations

Table 3. Major occupational groups, sum of absolute differences
Occupational group	BLS	Naïve	Which performed better
Management occupations	0.64	0.71	BLS
Business and financial operations occupations	0.36	0.47	BLS
Computer and mathematical occupations	0.26	0.42	BLS
Architecture and engineering occupations	0.30	0.32	BLS
Life, physical, and social science occupations	0.16	0.16	Occupational-Share Naïve
Community and social services occupations	0.27	0.29	BLS
Legal occupations	0.04	0.04	BLS
Education, training, and library occupations	0.76	0.71	Occupational-Share Naïve
Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media occupations	0.36	0.37	BLS
Healthcare practitioners and technical occupations	0.44	0.59	BLS
Healthcare support occupations	0.18	0.45	BLS
Protective service occupations	0.10	0.12	BLS
Food preparation and serving related occupations	1.27	1.33	BLS
Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance occupations	0.25	0.13	Occupational-Share Naïve
Personal care and service occupations	0.98	1.14	BLS
Sales and related occupations	0.96	1.26	BLS
Office and administrative support occupations	2.84	3.20	BLS
Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations	0.19	0.26	BLS
Construction and extraction occupations	1.29	1.25	Occupational-Share Naïve
Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations	0.50	0.44	Occupational-Share Naïve
Production occupations	0.78	1.24	BLS
Transportation and material moving occupations	0.64	0.71	BLS

Table 4. Education & training, sum of absolute differences
Education and training classification	BLS	Naïve	Which performed better
Bachelor's or higher degree, plus work experience	0.56	0.70	BLS
Work experience in a related occupation	0.69	0.95	BLS
Long-term on-the-job training	1.34	1.36	BLS
Bachelor's degree	1.36	1.49	BLS
Associate degree	0.25	0.37	BLS
Postsecondary vocational award	0.76	0.74	Occupational-Share Naïve
Moderate-term on-the-job training	3.41	3.85	BLS
Doctoral degree	0.27	0.31	BLS
Master's degree	0.32	0.37	BLS
First professional degree	0.18	0.20	BLS
Short-term on-the-job training	4.46	5.26	BLS

Issues evaluating occupational projections

Data compared here were affected by the introduction of the 2010 Standard Occupation Classification (SOC) system which resulted in 81 out of 840 occupations not being comparable between 2004 and 2014. Definitional changes associated with the new classification system may also have had a limited impact on occupations that were deemed comparable.

Coverage of employment changed in 2008 when Employment Projections stopped producing estimates for secondary employment and again in 2014 when unpaid family workers were dropped.

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Last Modified Date: August 1, 2018