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Bureau of Labor Statistics > Employment Projections > Data

Macro Projections Evaluation: 2006–2016

BLS projects an economy at full employment. Therefore it is most informative to assess the accuracy of projections through comparisons to an economy at full employment, also known as potential values¹. Potential values are available for GDP and the unemployment rate. Actual values, although affected by cyclicality and not directly comparable, are also included for reference. For more information, refer to our evaluation methodology.

GDP

The BLS 2006–16 projection of GDP was significantly higher, 20.0 percent, than potential GDP². When the projection was made the economy was peaking right before the 2007–2009 recession. Some of this cyclical growth was misattributed as structural. A naïve projection³ also misattributed much of this growth, performing slightly better at 18.9 percent (See Table).

Table 1. GDP projections, actual, and potential (in millions, $2009)
	Levels	CBO Potential Estimate
	Levels	Difference	in Percent
CBO Potential	16940	.	.
BLS 2016 projection	20322	3382	20.0
Naïve	20143	3203	18.9
Actual	16716	-224	-1.3
NOTE: Data as of April 11, 2018.

Gross Domestic Product, historical and projected

View Chart Data

Unemployment Rate

BLS projected an unemployment rate that ended up being higher than potential, 5.0 percent compared 4.6.

Table 2. Unemployment rate, projected, actual, and potential
	Levels	CBO Potential Estimate
	Levels	Difference	in Percent
BLS 2006 projection	5.0	0.4	8.1
Actual	4.9	0.3	6.0
CBO Potential	4.6	.	.
NOTE: Data as of April 11, 2018.

View Chart Data

Note

¹ Potential values are estimated by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). For more information on the potential output assumption and how it relates to BLS projections see https://www.bls.gov/opub/mlr/2017/article/full-employment-an-assumption-within-bls-projections.htm

² Projections in 2004 were done in 2000 dollars. CBO estimates are in 2009 dollars. The 2004 projections are reweighted to 2009 dollars in order to compare the two series.

³ For the naïve model, the average growth rate for CBO's potential GDP (at the base year 2006) is calculated for the past 10 years, and projected forward 10 years to 2016.

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Last Modified Date: August 1, 2018