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The main factor affecting occupational growth rates is the growth rate of the industries in which they are employed. But over time, industries also change the mix of occupations used to create their output. Occupational projections incorporate changes to both those factors. For more information, refer to the evaluation methodology.
How often did BLS correctly project growth and decline for occupational groups?
BLS correctly projected whether an occupational group would grow or decline 77 percent of the time.
What did BLS project as the average growth rate from 2012 to 2022?
The projected average growth rate for occupations from 2012 to 2022 was 10.8 percent.
What was the actual average growth rate?
The actual average growth rate for occupations from 2012 to 2022 was 13.2 percent.
What contributed to the difference?
The actual growth rate was faster than projected because the labor force grew faster than projected and the unemployment rate in 2022 was lower than projected.
Did BLS project which occupational groups would grow relatively faster?
BLS correctly projected which occupational groups would grow faster than the economy as a whole 67 percent of the time.
An important way to evaluate any projection is to compare it against other, similar projections. This is not possible for occupational projections because there are no comparable projections which are not in some way derived from BLS projections. When no comparable projection exists another way of evaluating is to compare against a naïve model. The occupational evaluation uses the occupational–share naïve model.
Occupational projections were evaluated for:
Projections of major occupational groups (See Table 1 and Table 3).
Projections of detailed occupations (See Table 2).
Projections of occupations combined based on the level of education, experience, and training BLS assigned in 2012 (See Table 4).
These evaluations show how well BLS projected groups of related occupations. Each was compared to the occupational–share naïve model by summing the absolute differences from the actual result.
Measure | BLS | Naïve | Best performer |
---|---|---|---|
Sum of absolute differences |
8.7 | 10.1 | BLS |
Count of better score |
14 | 8 | BLS |
Measure | BLS | Naïve | Best performer |
---|---|---|---|
Sum of absolute differences |
17.1 | 17.8 | BLS |
Count of better score |
432 | 316 | BLS |
Occupational group | BLS | Naïve | Best performer |
---|---|---|---|
Management |
1.57 | 1.39 | Occupational-Share Naïve |
Business and financial |
0.90 | 0.97 | BLS |
Computer and mathematical |
0.28 | 0.45 | BLS |
Architecture and engineering |
0.05 | 0.11 | BLS |
Life, physical, and social science |
0.04 | 0.05 | BLS |
Community and social services |
0.06 | 0.15 | BLS |
Legal |
0.01 | 0.02 | BLS |
Education, training, and library |
0.59 | 0.58 | Occupational-Share Naïve |
Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media |
0.15 | 0.09 | Occupational-Share Naïve |
Healthcare practitioners and technical |
0.21 | 0.31 | BLS |
Healthcare support |
0.38 | 0.14 | Occupational-Share Naïve |
Protective service |
0.06 | 0.12 | BLS |
Food preparation and serving related |
0.12 | 0.22 | BLS |
Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance |
0.51 | 0.45 | Occupational-Share Naïve |
Personal care and service |
0.43 | 0.37 | Occupational-Share Naïve |
Sales and related |
1.26 | 1.59 | BLS |
Office and administrative support |
1.13 | 1.58 | BLS |
Farming, fishing, and forestry |
0.04 | 0.05 | BLS |
Construction and extraction |
0.15 | 0.24 | BLS |
Installation, maintenance, and repair |
0.08 | 0.05 | Occupational-Share Naïve |
Production |
0.06 | 0.60 | BLS |
Transportation and material moving |
0.65 | 0.53 | Occupational-Share Naïve |
Education, experience, and training classification | BLS | Naïve | Best performer |
---|---|---|---|
Education |
|||
Less than high school diploma |
4.19 | 4.44 | BLS |
High school diploma or equivalent |
6.54 | 6.92 | BLS |
Some college, no degree |
0.11 | 0.17 | BLS |
Postsecondary non-degree award |
1.16 | 1.05 | Occupational-Share Naïve |
Associate's degree |
0.33 | 0.34 | BLS |
Bachelor's degree |
4.07 | 4.15 | BLS |
Master's degree |
0.36 | 0.41 | BLS |
Doctoral or professional degree |
0.32 | 0.33 | BLS |
Work experience in a related occupation |
|||
No related work experience |
13.89 | 14.40 | BLS |
Less than 5 years |
2.31 | 2.50 | BLS |
5 years or more |
0.88 | 0.91 | BLS |
Typical on-the-job training |
|||
No on-the-job training |
6.08 | 6.28 | BLS |
Short-term on-the-job training |
7.30 | 7.49 | BLS |
Moderate-term on-the-job training |
2.40 | 2.72 | BLS |
Long-term on-the-job training |
0.50 | 0.57 | BLS |
Apprenticeship |
0.21 | 0.18 | Occupational-Share Naïve |
Internship/residency |
0.58 | 0.58 | Occupational-Share Naïve |
Note: Ties are broken using unrounded data |
The Employment Projections program relies on various data sources. Changes in methodology and classifications in these programs and surveys result in challenges with evaluating occupational projections at a detailed level.
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Last Modified Date: January 19, 2024