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Bureau of Labor Statistics > Employment Projections > Data

Occupational Projections Evaluation: 2012–2022

The main factor affecting occupational growth rates is the growth rate of the industries in which they are employed. But over time, industries also change the mix of occupations used to create their output. Occupational projections incorporate changes to both those factors. For more information, refer to the evaluation methodology.

Measuring Accuracy

How often did BLS correctly project growth and decline for occupational groups?

BLS correctly projected whether an occupational group would grow or decline 77 percent of the time.

What did BLS project as the average growth rate from 2012 to 2022?

The projected average growth rate for occupations from 2012 to 2022 was 10.8 percent.

What was the actual average growth rate?

The actual average growth rate for occupations from 2012 to 2022 was 13.2 percent.

What contributed to the difference?

The actual growth rate was faster than projected because the labor force grew faster than projected and the unemployment rate in 2022 was lower than projected.

Did BLS project which occupational groups would grow relatively faster?

BLS correctly projected which occupational groups would grow faster than the economy as a whole 67 percent of the time.

A standard for comparison

An important way to evaluate any projection is to compare it against other, similar projections. This is not possible for occupational projections because there are no comparable projections which are not in some way derived from BLS projections. When no comparable projection exists another way of evaluating is to compare against a naïve model. The occupational evaluation uses the occupational–share naïve model.

Different aspects of projections

Occupational projections were evaluated for:

Projections of major occupational groups (See Table 1 and Table 3).
Projections of detailed occupations (See Table 2).
Projections of occupations combined based on the level of education, experience, and training BLS assigned in 2012 (See Table 4).

These evaluations show how well BLS projected groups of related occupations. Each was compared to the occupational–share naïve model by summing the absolute differences from the actual result.

Table 1. Major occupational groups, combined scorecard
Measure	BLS	Naïve	Best performer
Sum of absolute differences	8.7	10.1	BLS
Count of better score	14	8	BLS

Table 2. Detailed occupations, combined scorecard
Measure	BLS	Naïve	Best performer
Sum of absolute differences	17.1	17.8	BLS
Count of better score	432	316	BLS

Table 3. Major occupational groups, sum of absolute differences
Occupational group	BLS	Naïve	Best performer
Management	1.57	1.39	Occupational-Share Naïve
Business and financial	0.90	0.97	BLS
Computer and mathematical	0.28	0.45	BLS
Architecture and engineering	0.05	0.11	BLS
Life, physical, and social science	0.04	0.05	BLS
Community and social services	0.06	0.15	BLS
Legal	0.01	0.02	BLS
Education, training, and library	0.59	0.58	Occupational-Share Naïve
Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media	0.15	0.09	Occupational-Share Naïve
Healthcare practitioners and technical	0.21	0.31	BLS
Healthcare support	0.38	0.14	Occupational-Share Naïve
Protective service	0.06	0.12	BLS
Food preparation and serving related	0.12	0.22	BLS
Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance	0.51	0.45	Occupational-Share Naïve
Personal care and service	0.43	0.37	Occupational-Share Naïve
Sales and related	1.26	1.59	BLS
Office and administrative support	1.13	1.58	BLS
Farming, fishing, and forestry	0.04	0.05	BLS
Construction and extraction	0.15	0.24	BLS
Installation, maintenance, and repair	0.08	0.05	Occupational-Share Naïve
Production	0.06	0.60	BLS
Transportation and material moving	0.65	0.53	Occupational-Share Naïve

Table 4. Education, experience, and training, sum of absolute differences
Education, experience, and training classification	BLS	Naïve	Best performer
Education
Less than high school diploma	4.19	4.44	BLS
High school diploma or equivalent	6.54	6.92	BLS
Some college, no degree	0.11	0.17	BLS
Postsecondary non-degree award	1.16	1.05	Occupational-Share Naïve
Associate's degree	0.33	0.34	BLS
Bachelor's degree	4.07	4.15	BLS
Master's degree	0.36	0.41	BLS
Doctoral or professional degree	0.32	0.33	BLS
Work experience in a related occupation
No related work experience	13.89	14.40	BLS
Less than 5 years	2.31	2.50	BLS
5 years or more	0.88	0.91	BLS
Typical on-the-job training
No on-the-job training	6.08	6.28	BLS
Short-term on-the-job training	7.30	7.49	BLS
Moderate-term on-the-job training	2.40	2.72	BLS
Long-term on-the-job training	0.50	0.57	BLS
Apprenticeship	0.21	0.18	Occupational-Share Naïve
Internship/residency	0.58	0.58	Occupational-Share Naïve
Note: Ties are broken using unrounded data

Issues evaluating occupational projections

The Employment Projections program relies on various data sources. Changes in methodology and classifications in these programs and surveys result in challenges with evaluating occupational projections at a detailed level.

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Last Modified Date: January 19, 2024