Caila Pinkleton is an economist and Frances Tirado is a statistician in the Division of Current Employment Statistics – National, Office of Employment and Unemployment Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Telephone: (202) 691‑6555; email: Contact CES
Introduction
With the release of January 2018 data on February 2, 2018, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) introduced its annual revision of national estimates of employment, hours, and earnings from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) monthly survey of nonfarm establishments. Each year, the CES survey realigns its sample-based estimates to incorporate universe counts of employment—a process known as benchmarking. Comprehensive counts of employment, or benchmarks, are derived primarily from unemployment insurance (UI) tax reports that nearly all employers are required to file with State Workforce Agencies.
Additionally, with the release of January 2018 data on February 2, 2018, the CES program updated the national nonfarm payroll series to the 2017 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) from the NAICS 2012 basis.
The March 2017 benchmark level for total nonfarm employment is 145,078,000.
Compared with the sample-based, published estimate for March 2017, total nonfarm employment had an upward revision of 138,000, or 0.1 percent.
With the implementation of the March 2017 benchmark, historical data have been reconstructed back to October 2016 for CES series 60-561613, security guards and patrols and armored car services. As a result of this reconstruction, the March 2017 employment level for total nonfarm has also been revised upwards by 3,000. More information on this historical reconstruction is available in the Reconstructions section below.
After accounting for the effect of this reconstruction, total nonfarm employment for March 2017 had an upward revision of 135,000, or 0.1 percent. The tables in this article reflect this process.
Table 1 below shows the recent history of total nonfarm percent and level benchmark revisions. Over the prior ten years, the annual benchmark revision at the total nonfarm level has averaged 0.2 percent (in absolute terms), with a range of −0.7 percent to 0.3 percent.
Table 1. Percent and level differences between nonfarm employment benchmarks and estimates by industry supersector, March 2007 – 2017 (in thousands) (1)
(1) The differences listed in this table reflect the error due to normal benchmarking procedures. Typically this error is equal to the March benchmarked level minus the published March estimated level. However in some years, other factors beyond normal benchmarking procedures influence the difference between the benchmarked and published March estimate levels. Those years are footnoted.
(2) A review of industries for the possible presence of noncovered employment yielded 13 additional industries. As a result of including these industries, employment in the amount of 95,000 was added to the benchmark nonfarm level. For more information, see the Changes to noncovered employment section of the 2011 CES Benchmark Article.
(3) The percent and level differences in this column reflect reconstructions to series within CES supersectors financial activities and education and healthcare services. Each first quarter, the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program, whose data account for approximately 97 percent of the CES universe scope (see The Sample section of the CES Technical Notes), incorporates updated industry assignments. In 2013, these updates included two substantial groups of nonrandom, noneconomic code changes, one to funds, trusts, and other financial vehicles (NAICS 525), and the other, a reclassification of approximately 466,000 in employment from private households (NAICS 814), which is out of scope for CES, to services for the elderly and persons with disabilities (NAICS 62412), which is in scope. These changes also had an impact, beyond what would be considered typical for a given benchmark year, on corresponding CES series. For more information about the changes to these industries, see the QCEW First Quarter 2013 News Release or the special notice regarding reconstructed data section of the 2013 CES Benchmark Article.
(4) With the 2015 benchmark, CES reconstructed the national employment series 65-624120, services for the elderly and persons with disabilities back to January 2000. CES previously reconstructed this series with the 2013 benchmark; however, between the 2013 and 2015 benchmark, a better source of information for the employment within NAICS 62412 for the state of California was found. The inclusion of the reconstructed series resulted in total nonfarm and total private employment that was 27,000 less than the originally published March 2015 estimate level. The difference between the benchmarked and originally published March 2015 estimate level is −199,000 or −0.1 percent. This table displays March 2015 data after accounting for the decrease of 27,000 from the reconstructed series. Similarly, for the education and health services supersector, this table displays March 2015 data after incorporating the reconstructed series. For more information, see the Reconstructions section of the 2015 CES Benchmark Article.
(5) With the 2017 benchmark, CES reconstructed the national employment series 60-561613, security guards and patrols and armored car services back to October 2016 to correct a microdata error. The inclusion of the reconstructed series resulted in total nonfarm and total private employment that was 3,000 more than the originally published March 2017 estimate level. The difference between the benchmarked and originally published March 2017 estimate level is 138,000 or 0.1 percent. This table displays March 2017 data after accounting for the increase of 3,000 from the reconstructed series. Similarly, for the professional and business services supersector, this table displays March 2017 data after incorporating the reconstructed series. For more information, see the Reconstructions section of the 2017 CES Benchmark Article.
(6) Absolute revision is less than 0.05 percent.
(7) Indented series are part of trade, transportation, and utilities.
Tables 2, 5, and 6 on this page contain clickable headers that sort the table by the clicked column.
Table 2 shows the nonfarm employment benchmarks for March 2017, not seasonally adjusted, by industry. The revision to the reconstructed total nonfarm employment is 135,000.
Nine supersectors saw upward revisions. The largest upward revision occurred in leisure and hospitality by an amount of 126,000, or 0.8 percent; within this supersector, the largest revision was in accommodation and food services (72,800, or 0.5 percent). The next largest upward revision occurred in trade, transportation, and utilities, by an amount of 75,000, or 0.3 percent; within this supersector, the largest revision was in transportation and warehousing (79,800, or 1.6 percent). The next largest upward revision occurred in education and health services by an amount of 70,000, or 0.3 percent; within this supersector, the largest revision was in social assistance (62,000, or 1.6 percent). The next largest upward revision occurred in information by an amount of 70,000, or 2.5 percent; within this supersector, the largest revision was in motion picture and sound recording industries (20,900, or 4.9 percent). The next largest upward revision occurred in construction by an amount of 52,000, or 0.8 percent; within this supersector, the largest revision occurred in nonresidential building (24,300, or 3.2 percent). The four supersectors with the smallest upward revisions occurred in: other services (18,000, or 0.3 percent), manufacturing (15,000, or 0.1 percent), financial activities (7,000, or 0.1 percent), and government (2,000, or less than 0.05 percent).
The remaining two supersectors had negative revisions. The largest downward revision occurred in professional and business services, −270,000, or −1.3 percent; within this supersector, the largest downward revision was in professional and technical services (−147,100, or −1.6 percent). Mining and logging was revised downward by an amount of −30,000, or −4.6 percent; within this supersector, the largest downward revision was in oil and gas extraction (−32,900, or −22.9 percent).
(2) With the 2017 benchmark, CES reconstructed the national employment series 60-561613, security guards and patrols and armored car services back to October 2016 to correct a microdata error. For more information about impacted series, see the Reconstructions section in the 2017 Benchmark Article.
(3) Percent revisions of 0.0 indicate the absolute revision is less than 0.05 percent.
From April 2017 to December 2017, also known as the post-benchmark period, estimates were recalculated for each month based primarily on new benchmark levels and new net birth/death factors. Net birth/death factors were revised to incorporate information from the most recent year of universe employment counts. Table 3 shows the net birth/death model values for the supersectors over the post-benchmark period. From April 2017 to December 2017, the net birth/death model cumulatively added 1,112,000, compared with 972,000 in the previously published April 2017 to December 2017 employment estimates.
Table 3. Net birth/death estimates by industry supersector, April to December 2017 (in thousands)
Table 4 presents revised total nonfarm employment data on a seasonally adjusted basis for January 2017 through December 2017. The revised data for April 2017 forward incorporate the effect of applying the rate of change measured by the sample to the new benchmark level, as well as updated net birth/death model adjustments and new seasonal adjustment factors. Revisions to November and December also reflect incorporation of additional sample receipts.
Table 4. Differences in seasonally adjusted levels and over-the-month changes, total nonfarm employment, January to December 2017 (in thousands)
With the release of the January 2018 first preliminary estimates on February 2, 2018, CES incorporated series changes related to annual sample adequacy and disclosure review.
Series changes due to annual sample review
All CES series are evaluated annually for sample size, coverage, and response rates. The following changes resulted from a re-evaluation of the sample and
universe coverage for CES industries, which are based on North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) industries. Some small industries no longer have sufficient sample to be
estimated and published separately and were combined with other similar industries for estimation and publication purposes. The following information is also available at
www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesnewseries.htm.
Some series have new CES industry codes or titles as a result of the series changes (exhibit 1).
These CES industry code or title changes were applied to all data types published for the designated series.
Historical data for these series with new CES industry codes or CES industry titles are impacted as noted on the remainder of this page;
historical data are available under the new CES industry codes or CES industry titles.
Exhibit 1. Series with CES industry code or title changes
NAICS Code
Previous
New
CES Industry Code
CES Industry Title
CES Industry Code
CES Industry Title
337211,2,4
31-337212
Wood office furniture and custom architectural woodwork and millwork
31-337214
Office furniture and custom architectural woodwork and millwork
Exhibit 2 through exhibit 7 show the new CES industry codes and titles, not the previous CES industry codes and titles, as noted in exhibit 1.
Only directly estimated data types1 are included in the exhibits:
All Employees (AE)
AE Average Weekly Hours (AE AWH)
AE Average Hourly Earnings (AE AHE)
AE Average Weekly Overtime Hours (AE AWOH)
Women Employees (WE)
Production Employees (PE)
PE Average Weekly Hours (PE AWH)
PE Average Hourly Earnings (PE AHE)
PE Average Weekly Overtime Hours (PE AWOH)
The directly estimated data types listed except for AE are collectively called non-AE data types. In order to more easily identify affected series, since AE series are published at a more detailed industry level than non-AE series, series changes are shown for AE and non-AE data types. The non-AE tables cover all directly estimated non-AE data types.
The first three exhibits reference the AE data type and the second three exhibits reference all non-AE data types. The three exhibits in each group display the discontinued, collapsed, and new series. Discontinued series exhibits (exhibit 2 and exhibit 5) display series for which the data types noted are no longer published. Collapsed series exhibits (exhibit 3 and exhibit 6) display series for which the data types noted are no longer published because the industry no longer has sufficient sample to be estimated and published separately. Affected industries have been combined with other similar industries for estimation and publication purposes. Historical data for these series were reconstructed to provide consistent time series. New series exhibits (exhibit 4 and exhibit 7) display series for which the data types noted are now published.
AE exhibits
Exhibit 2. Discontinued AE series
NAICS Code
CES Industry Code
CES Industry Title
Next Highest Published Industry (CES Industry Code)
Conversion to the 2017 North American Industry Classification System
With the release of January 2018 data on February 2, 2018, the CES program updated the national nonfarm payroll series to the 2017 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) from the NAICS 2012 basis with the February 2, 2018 Employment Situation release. This change is in accordance with the final decision from the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) on recommendations put forth by its Economic Classification Policy Committee (ECPC) in the
Federal Register, Volume 81, Number 152.
For more information about OMB’s decision and directive on the NAICS 2017 update, see the Federal Register, Volume 80, Number 149. For more information about NAICS 2012 and NAICS 2017 classifications, see the Census Bureau's NAICS page. For more information about other Federal Register notices involving NAICS, see the Census Bureau's Federal Register Notices page.
This conversion resulted in minor revisions reflecting content and coding changes within the retail trade, information, financial activities, and professional and business services major industry sectors, as well as a number of consolidations within the durable goods manufacturing, retail trade, and information major industry sectors. Several industry titles and descriptions were updated. Approximately 4 percent of CES employment was reclassified into different industries as a result of the revision. For more information about NAICS codes and CES industry codes, as well as previous NAICS conversions, see the CES NAICS page.
Some of the changes associated with the NAICS 2017 update impacted levels of detail not published by CES; therefore, only cases where CES industries were impacted are discussed in detail here.
Only the following directly estimated data types are noted in the exhibits:
All Employees (AE)
AE Average Weekly Hours (AE AWH)
AE Average Hourly Earnings (AE AHE)
Women Employees (WE)
Production Employees (PE)
PE Average Weekly Hours (PE AWH)
PE Average Hourly Earnings (PE AHE)
The directly estimated data types listed except for AE are collectively called non-AE data types. In order to more easily identify affected series and because AE series are published at a more detailed industry level than non-AE series, series changes are shown for AE and non-AE data types. The non-AE tables cover all directly estimated non-AE data types.
The conversion from NAICS 2012 to NAICS 2017 can affect CES industry codes in several ways. Some CES series were converted as a whole from their NAICS 2012 industry code to their new NAICS 2017 industry code. Some CES series were combined with other series because their underlying NAICS codes were combined. Other CES series were split into more detailed CES series because their NAICS codes were changed to accommodate new distinct industries. Finally, some CES series are no longer published at the same level of detail under NAICS 2017.
Where reconstructions were necessary, ratios of employment moving from old CES industries based on NAICS 2012 to new CES industries based on NAICS 2017 were calculated for March 2017 and were applied to historical CES data. These ratios were calculated by assigning both a NAICS 2012-based CES industry and a NAICS 2017-based CES industry to individual report-level data from the longitudinal database (LDB) from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) which is used as the CES sample frame. The March 2017 LDB employment was summed by old CES industry based on NAICS 2012 and by new CES industry based on NAICS 2017. Forward ratios were created by dividing the amount of each old NAICS 2012-based CES industry moving to a new NAICS 2017-based CES industry by its total for the old CES industry (see exhibit 11 for AE ratios and exhibit 16 for non-AE ratios). Reverse ratios were created by dividing the amount of each old NAICS 2012-based CES industry moving to a new NAICS 2017-based CES industry by its total for the new CES industry (see exhibit 12 for AE reverse ratios and exhibit 17 for non-AE reverse ratios).
Forward ratios were held constant and applied to each monthly CES employment estimate for the entire history of the series, usually back to 1990, to determine the amount of employment moving from a NAICS 2012 CES industry to a NAICS 2017 CES industry. Average weekly hours and average hourly earnings were recalculated by applying forward ratios to the amount of old total hours and old total payroll to move the correct amount of hours or earnings into the new CES industry. Total hours and total earnings were then averaged using the new employment levels. More information about the calculation of CES estimates for employment, hours, and earnings estimates is available in the CES Technical Notes under Estimation Methods.
AE exhibits
Exhibit 8 shows AE series that were partially or completely combined with other series.
For example, the CES industry department stores, except discount (42-452111) was combined with a portion of discount department stores (42-452112) to create the new CES industry department stores (42-452200). This is because the associated NAICS 2012 industry code 452111 became NAICS 2017 industry code 452210, and part of NAICS 2012 industry code 452112 became NAICS 2017 industry code 452210. The remainder of NAICS 2012 industry code 452112 became NAICS 2017 industry code 452311, along with all of NAICS 2012 industry code 452910.
Exhibit 8. New AE series as a result of reclassification of NAICS 2012 to NAICS 2017
NAICS 2012
Reclassification
NAICS Code
CES Industry Code
CES Industry Title
452111
42-452111
Department stores, except discount
Combined into new NAICS 2017 department stores (42-452200)
452112
42-452112
Discount department stores
New NAICS 2017 department stores (42-452200) combined all of department stores, except discount (42-452111) and a portion of discount department stores (42-452112)
452112
42-452112
Discount department stores
New NAICS 2017 warehouse clubs and supercenters (42-452311) combined a portion of discount department stores (42-452112) and all of warehouse clubs and supercenters (42-452910)
45291
42-452910
Warehouse clubs and supercenters
Combined into new NAICS 2017 warehouse clubs and supercenters (42-452311)
45299
42-452990
All other general merchandise stores
Moved into new NAICS 2017 all other general merchandise stores (42-452319)
454112
42-454112
Electronic shopping and electronic auctions
Combined into new NAICS 2017 electronic shopping and mail-order houses (42-454100)
454113
42-454113
Mail-order houses
Combined into new NAICS 2017 electronic shopping and mail-order houses (42-454100)
5171
50-517100
Wired telecommunications carriers
Moved into new NAICS 2017 wired telecommunications carriers (50-517311)
Moved into new NAICS 2017 wireless telecommunications carriers, except satellite (50-517312)
53223
55-532230
Video tape and disc rental
Combined into new NAICS 2017 consumer goods rental (55-532200)
53223
55-532230
Video tape and disc rental
Moved into new NAICS 2017 video tape and disc rental (55-532282)
53229
55-532290
Miscellaneous consumer goods rental
Combined into new NAICS 2017 consumer goods rental (55-532200)
532291
55-532291
Home health equipment rental
Moved into new NAICS 2017 home health equipment rental (55-532283)
541711
60-541711
Biotechnology research
New NAICS 2017 research and development in biotechnology, except nanobiotechnology (60-541714) is a portion of biotechnology research (60-541711)
541711
60-541711
Biotechnology research
New NAICS 2017 research and development in nanotechnology (60-541713) combined a portion of biotechnology research (60-541711) and a portion of physical, engineering, and life sciences research (60-541712)
541712
60-541712
Physical, engineering, and life sciences research
New NAICS 2017 research and development in nanotechnology (60-541713) combined a portion of biotechnology research (60-541711) and a portion of physical, engineering, and life sciences research (60-541712)
541712
60-541712
Physical, engineering, and life sciences research
New NAICS 2017 research and development in the physical, engineering, and life sciences, except nanotechnology and biotechnology (60-541715) is a portion of physical, engineering, and life sciences research (60-541712)
Exhibit 9 shows AE series that had changes in scope due to the conversion from NAICS 2012 to NAICS 2017. These new CES industries combined series that were previously published separately or as part of another series.
For example, the new CES industry research and development in nanotechnology (60-541713) combined a portion of the old CES industry biotechnology research (60-541711) and a portion of the old CES industry physical, engineering, and life sciences research (60-541712). The remaining part of the old NAICS 2012-based CES industry biotechnology research (60-541711) became the new NAICS 2017-based CES industry research and development in biotechnology, except nanobiotechnology (60-541714). The remaining part of the old NAICS 2012-based CES industry physical, engineering, and life sciences research (60-541712) became the new NAICS 2017-based CES industry research and development in the physical, engineering, and life sciences, except nanotechnology and biotechnology (60-541715).
Exhibit 9. Change in scope of AE series as a result of NAICS 2017
NAICS 2017
Reclassification
NAICS Code
CES Industry Code
CES Industry Title
4522
42-452200
Department stores
The new NAICS 2017 series department stores (42-452200) combined all of department stores, except discount (42-452111) and a portion of discount department stores (42-452112)
452311
42-452311
Warehouse clubs and supercenters
The new NAICS 2017 series warehouse clubs and supercenters (42-452311) combined a portion of department stores, except discount (42-452111) and all of warehouse clubs and supercenters (42-452910)
4541
42-454100
Electronic shopping and mail-order houses
The new NAICS 2017 series electronic shopping and mail-order houses (42-454100) combined electronic shopping and electronic auctions (42-454112) and mail-order houses (42-454113)
5322
55-532200
Consumer goods rental
The new NAICS 2017 series consumer goods rental (55-532200) combined video tape and disc rental (55-532230) and miscellaneous consumer goods rental (55-532290)
541713
60-541713
Research and development in nanotechnology
A portion of biotechnology research (60-541711) moved to into new NAICS 2017 research and development in nanotechnology (60-541713). The rest was reclassified into biotechnology, except nanobiotechnology (60-541714).
541713
60-541713
Research and development in nanotechnology
The new NAICS 2017 series research and development in nanotechnology (60-541713) is a portion of biotechnology research (60-541711) and a portion of physical, engineering, and life sciences research (60-541712)
541714
60-541714
Research and development in biotechnology, except nanobiotechnology
The new NAICS 2017 series research and development in biotechnology, except nanobiotechnology (60-541714) is a portion of biotechnology research (60-541711)
541715
60-541715
Research and development in the physical, engineering, and life sciences, except nanotechnology and biotechnology
The new NAICS 2017 series research and development in the physical, engineering, and life sciences, except nanotechnology and biotechnology (60-541715) is a portion of physical, engineering, and life sciences research (60-541712)
Exhibit 10 shows AE series that are no longer published under NAICS 2017.
For example, NAICS 2017 combined electronic shopping and electronic auctions (NAICS 454112) and mail-order houses (NAICS 454113) into electronic shopping and mail-order houses (NAICS 454110). The two CES industries associated with the NAICS 2012 industries are 42-454112 and 42-454113. These were discontinued and the higher level CES series electronic shopping and mail-order houses (42-454100) is the next highest published level.
Exhibit 10. Discontinued NAICS 2012 AE series
NAICS 2012
Next Highest Published Level (CES Industry Code)
NAICS Code
CES Industry Code
CES Industry Title
452111
42-452111
Department stores, except discount
Department stores (42-452200)
45291
42-452910
Warehouse clubs and supercenters
Warehouse clubs and supercenters (42-452311)
454112
42-454112
Electronic shopping and electronic auctions
Electronic shopping and mail-order houses (42-454100)
454113
42-454113
Mail-order houses
Electronic shopping and mail-order houses (42-454100)
Exhibit 11 shows the proportion of AE employment that moved from an old NAICS 2012-based CES industry code to a new NAICS 2017-based CES industry code.
Industries that moved completely from a NAICS 2012-based CES industry to a NAICS 2017-based CES industry have a ratio of 100. NAICS 2012-based CES industries that moved only a portion of their employment from the old NAICS 2012-based CES industry to a new NAICS 2017-based CES industry have ratios of less than 100. Old NAICS 2012-based CES industry codes with ratios of less than 100 are listed multiple times to account for the movement of all of their employment.
For example, 98.3 percent of discount department stores (42-452112) was moved into the new NAICS 2017-based CES industry department stores (42-452200). The remaining 1.7 percent was moved into the new CES industry warehouse clubs and supercenters (42-452311).
Exhibit 11. NAICS 2012 to NAICS 2017 AE employment ratios
Exhibit 12 shows the proportion of AE employment that moved to a new NAICS 2017-based CES industry that came from an old NAICS 2012-based CES industry.
For example, 37.8 percent of the new NAICS 2017-based CES industry department stores (42-452200) came from the old NAICS 2012-based CES industry department stores, except discount (42-452111). The remaining 62.2 percent of the new NAICS 2017-based CES industry department stores (42-452200) came from the old NAICS 2012-based CES industry discount department stores (42-452112).
Exhibit 12. NAICS 2017 to NAICS 2012 AE employment ratios
Exhibit 13 shows non-AE series that were partially or completely combined with other series, just like their AE counterparts. Some series affected for AE were not affected for non-AE because non-AE data types are not published at the same level.
Exhibit 13. New non-AE series as a result of reclassification of NAICS 2012 to NAICS 2017
NAICS 2012
Reclassification
NAICS Code
CES Industry Code
CES Industry Title
454112
42-454112
Electronic shopping and electronic auctions
Combined into new NAICS 2017 electronic shopping and mail-order houses (42-454100)
454113
42-454113
Mail-order houses
Combined into new NAICS 2017 electronic shopping and mail-order houses (42-454100)
5171
50-517100
Wired telecommunications carriers
Moved into new NAICS 2017 wired telecommunications carriers (50-517311)
Moved into new NAICS 2017 wireless telecommunications carriers, except satellite (50-517312)
532291
55-532291
Home health equipment rental
Moved into new NAICS 2017 home health equipment rental (55-532283)
541711
60-541711
Biotechnology research
New NAICS 2017 research and development in biotechnology, except nanobiotechnology (60-541714) is a portion of biotechnology research (60-541711)
541711
60-541711
Biotechnology research
New NAICS 2017 research and development in nanotechnology (60-541713) combined a portion of biotechnology research (60-541711) and a portion of physical, engineering, and life sciences research (60-541712)
541712
60-541712
Physical, engineering, and life sciences research
New NAICS 2017 research and development in nanotechnology (60-541713) combined a portion of biotechnology research (60-541711) and a portion of physical, engineering, and life sciences research (60-541712)
541712
60-541712
Physical, engineering, and life sciences research
New NAICS 2017 research and development in the physical, engineering, and life sciences, except nanotechnology and biotechnology (60-541715) is a portion of physical, engineering, and life sciences research (60-541712)
Exhibit 14 shows non-AE series that had changes in scope due to the conversion from NAICS 2012 to NAICS 2017. These series reflect the same changes as their AE counterparts, but at less detailed levels, and some series affected for AE are not affected for non-AE.
Exhibit 14. Change in scope of non-AE series as a result of NAICS 2017
NAICS 2017
Reclassification
NAICS Code
CES Industry Code
CES Industry Title
4541
42-454100
Electronic shopping and mail-order houses
The new NAICS 2017 series electronic shopping and mail-order houses (42-454100) combined electronic shopping and electronic auctions (42-454112) and mail-order houses (42-454113)
541713
60-541713
Research and development in nanotechnology
The new NAICS 2017 series research and development in nanotechnology (60-541713) is a portion of biotechnology research (60-541711) and a portion of physical, engineering, and life sciences research (60-541712)
541714
60-541714
Research and development in biotechnology, except nanobiotechnology
The new NAICS 2017 series research and development in biotechnology, except nanobiotechnology (60-541714) is a portion of biotechnology research (60-541711)
541715
60-541715
Research and development in the physical, engineering, and life sciences, except nanotechnology and biotechnology
The new NAICS 2017 series research and development in the physical, engineering, and life sciences, except nanotechnology and biotechnology (60-541715) is a portion of physical, engineering, and life sciences research (60-541712)
Exhibit 15 shows non-AE series that are no longer published under NAICS 2017. Some AE series that were discontinued were already not published for non-AE series, and therefore, are unaffected by NAICS 2017 discontinuations for non-AE.
Exhibit 15. Discontinued non-AE series as a result of NAICS 2017
NAICS 2012
Next Highest Published Level (CES Industry Code)
NAICS Code
CES Industry Code
CES Industry Title
454112
42-454112
Electronic shopping and electronic auctions
Electronic shopping and mail-order houses (42-454100)
454113
42-454113
Mail-order houses
Electronic shopping and mail-order houses (42-454100)
Exhibit 16 shows the proportion of non-AE employment that was moved from an old CES industry code based on NAICS 2012 to a new CES industry code based on NAICS 2017.
Industries that moved directly and completely from an old NAICS 2012-based CES industry to a new NAICS 2017-based CES industry have a ratio of 100. Old NAICS 2012-based CES industries that moved only a portion of their employment from the old NAICS 2012-based CES industry to a new NAICS 2017-based CES industry have ratios of less than 100. Old NAICS 2012-based CES industry codes with ratios of less than 100 are listed multiple times to account for the movement of all of their employment.
For example, 4.9 percent of biotechnology research (60-541711) moved into the new NAICS 2017-based CES industry research and development in nanotechnology (60-541713). The remaining 95.1 percent moved into the new NAICS 2017-based CES industry research and development in biotechnology, except nanobiotechnology (60-541714).
Exhibit 16. NAICS 2012 to NAICS 2017 non-AE employment ratios
Exhibit 17 shows the proportion of non-AE employment that moved to a new NAICS 2017-based CES industry that came from an old NAICS 2012-based CES industry.
For example, 66.8 percent of the new NAICS 2017-based CES industry electronic shopping and mail-order houses (42-454100) came from the old NAICS 2012-based CES industry electronic shopping and electronic auctions (42-454112). The remaining 33.2 percent of the new NAICS 2017-based CES industry electronic shopping and mail-order houses (42-454100) came from the old NAICS 2012-based CES industry mail-order houses (42-454113).
Exhibit 17. NAICS 2017 to NAICS 2012 non-AE employment ratios
Several series were reconstructed as part of the 2017 CES benchmark. Two summary-level series were reconstructed for pre-1990 data. In addition, errors were corrected for: security guards and patrols and armored car services; PE and WE series in 5 smaller series within financial activities, professional and business services, and leisure and hospitality; and a strike adjustment error was corrected for seasonally adjusted women employees series.
Pre-1990 reconstructed series
Two summary-level series were affected by reconstructions in prior years, but had not seen revisions to their pre-1990 histories. Exhibit 18 outlines the CES industries, data types, and time spans that were involved in the pre-1990 reconstructions.
Exhibit 18. CES summary series involved in pre-1990 data reconstructions
Insurance agencies, brokerages, and related services reconstructed, January 1985 to December 1989
During processing for the 2013 benchmark, a recoding effort moved the majority of employment out of funds, trusts, and other financial vehicles and into other series within the financial activities major industry sector. Impacted basic-level series were reconstructed back to January 1990; summary-level series were affected indirectly through aggregation. For more information about this reconstruction, see the special notice regarding reconstructed data in the 2013 CES Benchmark Article.
The 4-digit level series insurance agencies, brokerages, and related services (55-524200) was affected by this 2013 reconstruction back to January 1990 through aggregation. This series goes back further than January 1990, creating a break in the time series from December 1989 to January 1990.
To correct for this break, monthly growth rates for the January 1985 to December 1989 period were applied to the revised January 1990 levels, including a revised over-the-month change for December 1989 to January 1990 based on historical data from the pre-revised series (55-524200 prior to the 2013 benchmark), in order to derive new monthly levels. The December 1989 to January 1990 growth rate from the pre-revised series was applied to the January 1990 level in order to derive the new level for December 1989. The growth rates as previously published for January 1985 to November 1989 were then applied backwards through time, yielding new levels and a continuous time series from January 1985 forward.
Offices of physicians, January 1972 to December 1989
During processing for the 2016 benchmark, a change to NAICS codes for reports in health care services affecting 2 industries was discovered. This change was determined to be non-economic and affected the entire series going back to 1990. Impacted basic-level series were reconstructed back to January 1990; summary-level series were affected indirectly through aggregation. For more information about this reconstruction, see the Reconstruction section of the 2016 CES Benchmark Article.
The 4-digit level series offices of physicians (65-621100) was affected by this 2016 reconstruction back to January 1990 through aggregation. This series goes back further than January 1990, creating a break in the time series from December 1989 to January 1990.
With 2017 benchmark processing, the pre-1990 history of 65-621100 was reconstructed back to January 1972 for AE. A ratio of the employment in the reclassified establishments to the employment originally in 65-621100 was calculated for March 2016. This March 2016 ratio was applied to each month’s employment level for 65-621100 from December 1989 back to January 1972. The resulting employment amounts were taken out of 65-621100 to create a reconstructed AE series. This change also affected PE, PE hours and earnings, and WE series back to January 1982. Derivatives of directly estimated data types may also be impacted by this reconstruction.
Security guards and patrols and armored car services, October 2016 to December 2017
An error was found in the CES microdata for security guards and patrols and armored car services (60-561613). AE series were affected for 60-561613 and AE, AE hours and earnings, PE, PE hours and earnings, and WE were affected for 60-561610. This error affected data from October 2016 to December 2017.
Exhibit 19 outlines the CES industries, data types, and time spans that were involved in the reconstruction of 60-561613.
Exhibit 19. CES industries involved in the reconstruction of 60-561613
Using corrected AE microdata, 60-561613 was reconstructed using amended sample links for each month to recalculate the AE series. The AE series was then summed with investigation services (60-561611) to create AE data at the 60-561610 level. Corrected microdata for non-AE data types in 60-561610 and the new summary-level AE series were used to calculate AE hours and earnings, PE, PE hours and earnings, and WE. More information about sample links and monthly estimation is available in the CES Technical Notes under Monthly Estimation.
The reconstruction resulted in security and armored car services AE that was 3,000 greater than the originally published March 2017 estimate level. All aggregate CES industries that were impacted by this reconstruction are included in exhibit 20 below.
Exhibit 20. CES aggregate series impacted by reconstruction of 60-561613
Reconstructed series were benchmarked according to the usual methodology. The reconstruction and subsequent benchmark resulted in revisions to seasonally and not seasonally adjusted data. More information about CES benchmarking methods is available in the CES Technical Notes under Benchmarks. More information about seasonal adjustment of CES series is available in the CES Technical Notes under Seasonal Adjustment.
Non-AE datatypes for 5 smaller series, November 2012 to May 2017
The CES program found processing errors in the estimates for PE and WE series in five smaller industries within financial activities, professional and business services, and leisure and hospitality. The timeframe of the errant data ranges from November 2012 (3rd closing) until May 2017; however, not all data during this timeframe are errant.
For some months, errors in detailed-level WE impacted aggregate WE estimates up through total nonfarm, and errors in detailed-level PE impacted aggregate PE estimates up through total private. The errors in detailed-level PE also resulted in minor errors in hours and earnings for aggregated PE (PE AWH and PE AHE), because hours and earnings are weighted by PE employment in the aggregation process. For more information about this processing error, see the BLS errata page at www.bls.gov/bls/errata/ces-women-production-correction.htm.
Exhibit 21 outlines the CES industries, data types, and time spans that were involved in the reconstruction of the five smaller industries for non-AE data types.
Exhibit 21. CES series involved in non-AE reconstruction for 5 smaller industries
To correct for these errors, PE and WE were re-estimated at the detailed level using corrected PE-to-AE and WE-to-AE ratios. After correcting PE and WE at the detailed level, there were no changes to PE hours and earnings. Using corrected detailed-level PE and WE estimates, employment estimates were re-aggregated up to total private for PE and total nonfarm for WE. Derivatives of directly estimated data types may also be impacted by this reconstruction.
Reconstructed series were benchmarked according to the usual methodology. The reconstruction and subsequent benchmark resulted in revisions to seasonally and not seasonally adjusted data. More information about CES benchmarking methods is available in the CES Technical Notes under Benchmarks. More information about seasonal adjustment of CES series is available in the CES Technical Notes under Seasonal Adjustment.
Exhibit 22 outlines the aggregate CES industries that were impacted by the reconstruction of the five smaller industries for non-AE data types.
Exhibit 22. CES aggregate series impacted by non-AE reconstruction
Seasonally adjusted data for women employees due to strike adjustment processing error
When generating seasonally adjusted estimates, the CES program sometimes modifies the not seasonally adjusted estimates before running X-13ARIMA-SEATS to ensure that non-seasonal events, such as strikes, are not included in the calculation of the seasonal factors. Once the seasonal factors are calculated, they are applied to the not seasonally adjusted data used as inputs. Then, the prior adjustments that were removed before running X-13ARIMA-SEATS are incorporated to create the seasonally adjusted estimates. More information about seasonal adjustment of CES series is available in the CES Technical Notes under Seasonal Adjustment.
During processing for the 2017 benchmark, it was discovered that the effects of several strikes were not removed before running seasonal adjustment for several women employees series. The WE strike adjustment was incorporated during seasonal adjustment processing for the 2017 benchmark, and affected series were seasonally adjusted back to January 1990. This correction has also been made to the latest prior adjustment file which can be downloaded from the CES Seasonal Adjustment Files and Documentation page. The correction resulted in small changes to historical data for several seasonally adjusted WE series.
Exhibit 23 outlines the CES industries that were involved in the strike adjustment correction for seasonally adjusted WE series.
Exhibit 23. Seasonally adjusted series involved in WE strike adjustment correction
A benchmark revision is the difference between the benchmark employment level for a given March and its corresponding sample-based estimate. The overall accuracy of the establishment survey is usually gauged by the size of this difference. The benchmark revision often is regarded as a proxy for total survey error, but this does not take into account error in the universe data or infrequent events such as historical reconstructions. The employment counts obtained from quarterly Unemployment Insurance (UI) tax forms are administrative data that reflect employer record-keeping practices and differing state laws and procedures. The benchmark revision can be more precisely interpreted as the difference between two independently derived employment counts, each subject to its own error sources.
Like all sample surveys, the establishment survey is susceptible to two sources of error: sampling error and nonsampling error. Sampling error is present any time a sample is used to make inferences about a population. The magnitude of the sampling error, or variance, relates directly to sample size and the percentage of the universe covered by that sample. The CES monthly survey captures slightly under one-third of the universe, exceptionally high by usual sampling standards. This coverage ensures a small sampling error at the total nonfarm employment level. More information on the reliability of CES estimates is available in the Reliability section of the CES Technical Notes.
Both the universe counts and the establishment survey estimates are subject to nonsampling errors common to all surveys – measurement, response, and processing errors. The error structures for both the CES monthly survey and the UI universe are complex. Still, the two programs generally produce consistent total employment figures, each validating the other.
The routine benchmarking process results in revisions to the series for production and nonsupervisory employees (PE) and women employees (WE). There are no benchmark employment levels for these series; they are revised by preserving ratios of employment for the particular data type to all employees (AE) level prior to benchmarking, and then applying these ratios to the revised all employees level. These figures are calculated at the basic cell level and then aggregated to produce the summary estimates.
Average weekly hours, average hourly earnings, and in manufacturing industries, average weekly overtime hours are not benchmarked; they are estimated solely from reports supplied by survey respondents at the basic estimating cell level.
The aggregate industry levels of the hours and earnings series are derived as a weighted average. All employees estimates and production and nonsupervisory employees estimates for the basic cells act as weights for their respective hours and earnings estimates for broader industry groupings. Adjustments of all employees estimates to new benchmarks may alter the weights used for both AE and PE hours and earnings, which, in turn, may change the estimates for both AE and PE hours and earnings at higher levels of aggregation.
Generally, new employment benchmarks have little effect on hours and earnings estimates for major industry groupings. To influence the hours and earnings estimates of a broader industry group, employment revisions have to be relatively large and must affect industries that have hours or earnings averages that are substantially different from those of other industries in their broader group. Table 5 and table 6 provide information on the levels of specific hours and earnings series resulting from the March 2017 benchmark. At the total private level, there was no change in average weekly hours estimates for both AE and PE from the previously published level. Total private average hourly earnings did not change for both AE and PE from the previously published level.
Table 5. Effect of March 2017 benchmark revisions to AE AWH and AE AHE estimates, selected industries
(1)
With the 2017 benchmark, CES reconstructed the national employment series 60-561613, security guards and patrols and armored car services back to October 2016 to correct a microdata error. The errors in employment resulted in errors in hours and earnings for aggregated series. For more information, see the Reconstructions section in the 2017 Benchmark Article.
(1)
With the 2017 benchmark, CES reconstructed several series. The CES national employment series 60-561613, security guards and patrols and armored car services was reconstructed back to October 2016 to correct a microdata error. The errors in employment resulted in errors in hours and earnings for aggregated series. CES also reconstructed 5 smaller industries within financial activities, professional and business services, and leisure and hospitality, to correct processing errors in estimates for women employees (WE) and production and nonsupervisory employees (PE). The errors in PE also resulted in minor errors in hours and earnings for aggregated PE. For more information, see the Reconstructions section in the 2017 Benchmark Article.
Establishment survey benchmarking is done on an annual basis to a population derived primarily from the administrative file of employees covered by UI. All employers covered by UI laws are required to report employment and wage information to the appropriate Labor Market Information (LMI) agency four times per year. Approximately 97 percent of total nonfarm employment within the scope of the establishment survey is covered by UI. A benchmark for the remaining 3 percent is constructed from alternate sources, primarily records from the Railroad Retirement Board (RRB), County Business Patterns (CBP), and Annual Survey of Public Employment and Payroll (ASPEP). This 3 percent is collectively referred to as noncovered employment. Noncovered employment data from these sources are available only on a lagged basis. More information on calculating noncovered employment in the CES program is available in the Benchmarks section of the CES Technical Notes under Calculating noncovered employment.
The time required to complete the benchmark revision process—from the full collection of the UI population data to publication of the revised industry estimates—is about ten months. The benchmark adjustment procedure replaces the March sample-based employment estimates with UI-based population counts for March. The benchmark therefore determines the final employment levels, while sample movements capture month-to-month trends.
On a not seasonally adjusted basis, the sample-based estimates for the year preceding and the nine months following the benchmark month (March) are also subject to revision; seasonally adjusted data are subject to revision back five years. Employment estimates for the months between the most recent March benchmark and the previous year's benchmark are adjusted using a linear "wedge-back" procedure, which assumes that the total estimation error accumulated at a steady rate since the last benchmark. For the nine months following the March benchmark (also referred to as the post-benchmark period), CES applies previously derived over-the-month sample changes to the revised March level to get the revised estimates (see Revisions in the post-benchmark period). New net birth/death model estimates also are calculated and applied during post-benchmark estimation. More information on benchmarks in the CES program is available in CES Technical Notes under Benchmarks.
The CES sample alone is not sufficient for estimating the total nonfarm employment level because each month new firms generate employment that cannot be captured through the sample. There is an unavoidable lag between a firm opening for business and its appearance on the CES sample frame. The sample frame is built from Unemployment Insurance (UI) quarterly tax records. These records cover virtually all U.S. employers and include business births, but they only become available for updating the CES sampling frame 7 to 9 months after the reference month. After the births appear on the frame, there is also time required for sampling, contacting, and soliciting cooperation from the firm, and verifying the initial data provided. In practice, BLS cannot sample and begin to collect data from new firms until they are at least a year old.
BLS has researched both sample-based and model-based approaches to measuring birth units that have not yet appeared on the UI universe frame. The research demonstrated that sampling for births was not feasible in the very short CES production timeframes, so the Bureau utilizes a model-based approach for this component. This model incorporates two components; the first component is an indirect imputation for business deaths and the second component is an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) time series model designed to estimate the net birth/death employment not accounted for by the imputation from the first component. More information on the CES birth/death model is available in the Birth/Death Model section of the CES Technical Notes under.
Only error from the second component is directly measurable. Error from this component is measured by comparing the actual net of births and deaths with the model-based adjustment that was used in the CES sample-based estimates. Most recently, the data from April 2016 to March 2017 can be measured. As table 7 shows, the actual net birth/death for April 2016 to March 2017 was approximately 181,000 above the forecasted amount used in the CES monthly estimates for the same time period.
Table 7. Differences between forecasted and actual net birth/death, total private employment, April 2016 – March 2017 (in thousands)
Typically, 5 years of seasonally adjusted data are revised with each CES annual benchmark. However, reconstructed series are seasonally adjusted over their revised time spans.
For technical information on how seasonal adjustment is performed in the CES program, refer to the Seasonal Adjustment section of the CES Technical Notes.
LABSTAT, the BLS public database, contains all historical employment, hours, and earnings data revised as a result of this benchmark, including both not seasonally adjusted and seasonally adjusted data. The data can be accessed at www.bls.gov/ces, the CES homepage.
Previously published data are available on both a not seasonally adjusted and seasonally adjusted basis for all CES industries down to the 3-digit level from the CES Vintage Data.
1CES estimates data in two ways: directly and indirectly. Directly estimated data types refer to data types for which estimates are calculated directly from the responding sample. Indirectly estimated data types refer to data types for which estimates are calculated from other directly estimated data types. Average weekly earnings of all employees and indexes of aggregate weekly hours of all employees are examples of indirectly estimated data types. For more information on indirectly estimated data types, see the CES Technical Notes.
