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Authored by Victoria Battista and Shane Haley.
Victoria Battista and Shane Haley are economists in the Division of Current Employment Statistics – National, Office of Employment and Unemployment Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Telephone: (202) 691‑6555; email: Contact CES
With the release of January 2021 data on February 5, 2021, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) introduced its annual revision to national estimates of employment, hours, and earnings from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) monthly survey of nonfarm establishments.
The March 2020 benchmarked seasonally adjusted employment level for total nonfarm employment is 150,840,000. The not seasonally adjusted benchmarked employment level is 149,952,000.
Compared with the sample-based, seasonally adjusted published estimate for March 2020, total nonfarm employment had a revision of −250,000 or −0.2 percent. The not seasonally adjusted total nonfarm employment estimate was revised by −121,000 or −0.1 percent.
Table 1 presents revised total nonfarm employment data on a seasonally adjusted basis for January 2020 through December 2020. The revised data for April 2020 forward incorporate the effect of applying the rate of change measured by the sample to the new benchmark employment level, as well as updated net birth-death model forecasts and new seasonal adjustment factors. Revisions to November and December also reflect incorporation of additional sample receipts. For more information about the methodology of benchmarking in the CES program, see the CES Technical Notes available at www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cestn.htm#section7b.
2020 | Levels | Over-the-month changes | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
As Revised | As Previously Published | Difference | As Revised | As Previously Published | Difference | |
January |
152,234 | 152,212 | 22 | 315 | 214 | 101 |
February |
152,523 | 152,463 | 60 | 289 | 251 | 38 |
March |
150,840 | 151,090 | -250 | -1,683 | -1,373 | -310 |
April |
130,161 | 130,303 | -142 | -20,679 | -20,787 | 108 |
May |
132,994 | 133,028 | -34 | 2,833 | 2,725 | 108 |
June |
137,840 | 137,809 | 31 | 4,846 | 4,781 | 65 |
July |
139,566 | 139,570 | -4 | 1,726 | 1,761 | -35 |
August |
141,149 | 141,063 | 86 | 1,583 | 1,493 | 90 |
September |
141,865 | 141,774 | 91 | 716 | 711 | 5 |
October |
142,545 | 142,428 | 117 | 680 | 654 | 26 |
November |
142,809 | 142,764 | 45 | 264 | 336 | -72 |
December (p) |
142,582 | 142,624 | -42 | -227 | -140 | -87 |
Footnotes |
Establishment survey benchmarking is done each year to align employment estimates from the survey with employment counts derived primarily from the administrative file of employees covered by Unemployment Insurance (UI). All employers covered by UI laws are required to report employment and wage information to the appropriate state UI agency four times per year. About 97 percent of total nonfarm employment within the scope of the establishment survey is covered by UI. The UI data are obtained and edited by each state’s Labor Market Information agency. They are tabulated and published through the BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program. Both the QCEW and CES categorize their data using the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS).
An employment count for the remaining 3 percent is constructed from other sources, primarily records from the Railroad Retirement Board and Census Bureau data from County Business Patterns and the Annual Survey of Public Employment and Payroll. This 3 percent is referred to as noncovered employment. The combination of QCEW and noncovered employment data make up the benchmark level. The full benchmark employment level developed for March replaces the March sample-based estimate for each basic cell.
The total annual revision is the difference between the benchmark level for a given March and the published March sample-based employment estimate. The overall accuracy of the establishment survey is usually gauged by the size of the benchmark revision, which is often regarded as a proxy for total survey error. Typically, the total revision is equal to the benchmark revision, but in years with historical reconstructions, affected CES series are re-estimated prior to benchmarking. The benchmark revision, in these cases, is the difference between the benchmark level and the newly reconstructed sample-based estimate. The benchmark revision is the difference between two independently derived employment counts, each subject to its own error sources.
In order to create a continuous time series between the new March benchmark level and historical sample-based data from the prior March benchmark level, employment estimates for the months between the most recent March benchmark and the previous year's benchmark are adjusted using a linear "wedge-back" procedure. This procedure assumes that the total estimation error accumulated at a steady rate since the last benchmark. For the 9 months following the March benchmark (also called the post-benchmark period), BLS applies previously derived over-the-month sample changes to the revised March level to get the revised estimates. New net birth-death model forecasts are also calculated and applied during post-benchmark estimation. More information on benchmarks in the CES program is available in the Benchmarks section of the CES Technical Notes and in the October 2017 Monthly Labor Review, "Benchmarking the Current Employment Statistics National Estimates."
Table 2 presents revised employment data on a seasonally adjusted basis for March 2020 by major industry sector. The revision to seasonally adjusted total nonfarm employment is −250,000.
CES Industry Code | CES Industry Title | As Revised | As Previously Published | Differences | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Amount | Percent | ||||
00-000000 | Total nonfarm | 150,840 | 151,090 | -250 | -0.2 |
05-000000 | Total private | 128,066 | 128,362 | -296 | -0.2 |
06-000000 | Goods-producing | 20,949 | 21,086 | -137 | -0.7 |
07-000000 | Service-providing | 129,891 | 130,004 | -113 | -0.1 |
08-000000 | Private service-providing | 107,117 | 107,276 | -159 | -0.1 |
10-000000 | Mining and logging | 674 | 706 | -32 | -4.7 |
20-000000 | Construction | 7,557 | 7,574 | -17 | -0.2 |
30-000000 | Manufacturing | 12,718 | 12,806 | -88 | -0.7 |
31-000000 | Durable goods | 7,961 | 8,031 | -70 | -0.9 |
32-000000 | Nondurable goods | 4,757 | 4,775 | -18 | -0.4 |
40-000000 | Trade, transportation, and utilities | 27,729 | 27,723 | 6 | (1) |
41-420000 | Wholesale trade | 5,876.6 | 5,922.2 | -45.6 | -0.8 |
42-000000 | Retail trade | 15,483.6 | 15,586.6 | -103.0 | -0.7 |
43-000000 | Transportation and warehousing | 5,822.1 | 5,668.2 | 153.9 | 2.6 |
44-220000 | Utilities | 547.0 | 545.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
50-000000 | Information | 2,898 | 2,888 | 10 | 0.3 |
55-000000 | Financial activities | 8,850 | 8,827 | 23 | 0.3 |
60-000000 | Professional and business services | 21,318 | 21,456 | -138 | -0.6 |
65-000000 | Education and health services | 24,347 | 24,408 | -61 | -0.3 |
70-000000 | Leisure and hospitality | 16,133 | 16,124 | 9 | 0.1 |
80-000000 | Other services | 5,842 | 5,850 | -8 | -0.1 |
90-000000 | Government | 22,774 | 22,728 | 46 | 0.2 |
Footnotes
(1) Absolute revision is less then 0.05 percent. |
Typically, 5 years of seasonally adjusted data are revised with each CES annual benchmark. However, reconstructed series are seasonally adjusted over their revised time spans.
For technical information on how seasonal adjustment is performed in the CES program, see the Seasonal Adjustment section of the CES Technical Notes.
For more information on seasonal adjustment model specifications and special model adjustments, see the CES Seasonal Adjustment Files and Documentation page.
Table 3 presents the employment benchmarks for March 2020, not seasonally adjusted, by major industry sector. The total revision to not seasonally adjusted total nonfarm employment is −121,000.
CES Industry Code | CES Industry Title | Benchmark | Estimate | Differences | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Amount | Percent | ||||
00-000000 | Total nonfarm | 149,952 | 150,073 | -121 | -0.1 |
05-000000 | Total private | 126,825 | 127,009 | -184 | -0.1 |
06-000000 | Goods-producing | 20,638 | 20,738 | -100 | -0.5 |
07-000000 | Service-providing | 129,314 | 129,335 | -21 | (1) |
08-000000 | Private service-providing | 106,187 | 106,271 | -84 | -0.1 |
10-000000 | Mining and logging | 669 | 696 | -27 | -4.0 |
20-000000 | Construction | 7,297 | 7,295 | 2 | (1) |
30-000000 | Manufacturing | 12,672 | 12,747 | -75 | -0.6 |
31-000000 | Durable goods | 7,949 | 8,013 | -64 | -0.8 |
32-000000 | Nondurable goods | 4,723 | 4,734 | -11 | -0.2 |
40-000000 | Trade, transportation, and utilities | 27,423 | 27,399 | 24 | 0.1 |
41-420000 | Wholesale trade | 5,847.9 | 5,895.9 | -48.0 | -0.8 |
42-000000 | Retail trade | 15,286.8 | 15,365.1 | -78.3 | -0.5 |
43-000000 | Transportation and warehousing | 5,741.7 | 5,592.8 | 148.9 | 2.6 |
44-220000 | Utilities | 546.5 | 545.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 |
50-000000 | Information | 2,888 | 2,874 | 14 | 0.5 |
55-000000 | Financial activities | 8,805 | 8,780 | 25 | 0.3 |
60-000000 | Professional and business services | 21,050 | 21,173 | -123 | -0.6 |
65-000000 | Education and health services | 24,471 | 24,518 | -47 | -0.2 |
70-000000 | Leisure and hospitality | 15,745 | 15,714 | 31 | 0.2 |
80-000000 | Other services | 5,805 | 5,813 | -8 | -0.1 |
90-000000 | Government | 23,127 | 23,064 | 63 | 0.3 |
Footnotes
(1) Absolute revision is less then 0.05 percent. |
Benchmarks for more detailed industries can be found at www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbmart-tables.htm.
Table 4 below shows the recent history of not seasonally adjusted total nonfarm percent and level benchmark revisions. Over the prior 10 years, the annual benchmark revision at the total nonfarm level has averaged 0.2 percent (in absolute terms), with a range of −0.3 percent to 0.3 percent.
The differences listed in table 4 and beyond reflect the error due to normal benchmarking procedures after the incorporation of reconstructions. Those years are footnoted.
CES Industry Code | CES Industry Title | Type | 2010 (1) | 2011 (2) | 2012 | 2013 (3) | 2014 | 2015 (4) | 2016 | 2017 (5) | 2018 (6) | 2019 (7) | 2020 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
00-000000 |
Total nonfarm | Percent | -0.3 | 0.1 | 0.3 | -0.1 | (8) | -0.1 | -0.1 | 0.1 | (8) | -0.3 | -0.1 |
Level | -378 | 162 | 424 | -119 | 67 | -172 | -81 | 135 | -16 | -489 | -121 | ||
05-000000 |
Total private | Percent | -0.4 | 0.1 | 0.4 | -0.1 | 0.1 | -0.2 | -0.1 | 0.1 | -0.1 | -0.4 | -0.1 |
Level | -391 | 134 | 481 | -126 | 105 | -232 | -151 | 133 | -104 | -505 | -184 | ||
10-000000 |
Mining and logging | Percent | -3 | -0.4 | 1.6 | -1.2 | -1.8 | -2.2 | -3.2 | -4.6 | -1.1 | -2.1 | -4 |
Level | -20 | -3 | 13 | -10 | -16 | -19 | -22 | -30 | -8 | -15 | -27 | ||
20-000000 |
Construction | Percent | -1.3 | -0.5 | 1.8 | 0.3 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.6 | -0.1 | (8) |
Level | -67 | -26 | 93 | 14 | 90 | 39 | 47 | 52 | 44 | -4 | 2 | ||
30-000000 |
Manufacturing | Percent | -1 | 0.1 | -0.2 | 0.2 | 0.4 | -0.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | -0.1 | (8) | -0.6 |
Level | -119 | 9 | -25 | 23 | 43 | -12 | 58 | 15 | -18 | -4 | -75 | ||
40-000000 |
Trade, transportation, and utilities | Percent | -0.6 | 0.4 | 0.6 | -0.5 | -0.1 | (8) | -0.4 | 0.3 | -0.3 | -0.4 | 0.1 |
Level | -143 | 95 | 145 | -131 | -31 | -5 | -110 | 75 | -77 | -117 | 24 | ||
41-420000(9) |
Wholesale trade | Percent | -2.3 | -0.2 | 0.8 | -0.4 | -0.8 | -0.7 | -1.1 | -0.4 | -0.9 | -0.7 | -0.8 |
Level | -124.5 | -13.1 | 45.3 | -20.2 | -45.4 | -41.3 | -66.6 | -21.2 | -54.4 | -38.6 | -48.0 | ||
42-000000(9) |
Retail trade | Percent | -0.1 | 0.6 | 0.5 | -0.8 | (8) | -0.2 | -0.8 | 0.1 | -0.6 | -1.0 | -0.5 |
Level | -18.4 | 83.8 | 78.9 | -110.3 | 5.5 | -23.5 | -118.2 | 15.4 | -96.4 | -150.8 | -78.3 | ||
43-000000(9) |
Transportation and warehousing | Percent | 0.1 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 2.6 |
Level | 3.1 | 22.4 | 29.4 | 3.6 | 9.7 | 65.3 | 83.5 | 79.8 | 72.7 | 75.8 | 148.9 | ||
44-220000(9) |
Utilities | Percent | -0.6 | 0.5 | -1.5 | -0.8 | -0.1 | -0.8 | -1.6 | 0.2 | 0.3 | -0.7 | 0.2 |
Level | -3.4 | 2.8 | -8.5 | -4.6 | -0.6 | -4.7 | -8.7 | 1.0 | 1.8 | -4.1 | 1.1 | ||
50-000000 |
Information | Percent | -0.4 | -0.4 | 1.8 | -0.2 | 2.4 | -1.6 | -0.1 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 1.2 | 0.5 |
Level | -11 | -12 | 47 | -5 | 66 | -44 | -2 | 70 | 59 | 35 | 14 | ||
55-000000 |
Financial activities | Percent | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.6 | -0.1 | 0.2 | -0.1 | (8) | 0.1 | -0.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
Level | 34 | 69 | 45 | -10 | 19 | -9 | -4 | 7 | -12 | 68 | 25 | ||
60-000000 |
Professional and business services | Percent | (8) | 0.7 | (8) | (8) | -0.8 | -0.6 | -0.6 | -1.3 | -0.4 | -0.8 | -0.6 |
Level | -3 | 125 | 2 | 4 | -147 | -110 | -125 | -270 | -72 | -159 | -123 | ||
65-000000 |
Education and health services | Percent | (8) | -0.5 | (8) | -0.3 | -0.1 | (8) | -0.4 | 0.3 | (8) | -0.4 | -0.2 |
Level | 7 | -108 | -2 | -61 | -16 | -7 | -83 | 70 | 5 | -95 | -47 | ||
70-000000 |
Leisure and hospitality | Percent | -0.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | -0.3 | 0.7 | 0.8 | (8) | -1.1 | 0.2 |
Level | -80 | 93 | 104 | 72 | 38 | -45 | 102 | 126 | -4 | -170 | 31 | ||
80-000000 |
Other services | Percent | 0.2 | -2 | 1.1 | -0.4 | 1.1 | -0.4 | -0.2 | 0.3 | -0.4 | -0.8 | -0.1 |
Level | 11 | -108 | 59 | -22 | 59 | -20 | -12 | 18 | -21 | -44 | -8 | ||
90-000000 |
Government | Percent | 0.1 | 0.1 | -0.3 | (8) | -0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | (8) | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.3 |
Level | 13 | 28 | -57 | 7 | -38 | 60 | 70 | 2 | 88 | 16 | 63 | ||
Footnotes: |
Benchmarking also affects the series for production and nonsupervisory employees (PE) and women employees (WE). There are no benchmark employment levels for these series; they are revised by preserving ratios of employment for the particular data type to the all employee (AE) level prior to benchmarking, and then applying these ratios to the revised all employee level. These figures are calculated at the basic cell level and then aggregated to produce the summary estimates. Average weekly hours (AWH), average hourly earnings (AHE), and, in manufacturing industries, average weekly overtime hours (AWOH) are not benchmarked; they are estimated solely from reports supplied by survey respondents at the basic estimating cell level. New employment benchmarks can additionally affect indirectly estimated data types. For more information on indirectly estimated data types, see the Available Data section in the CES Technical Notes.
Table 5 lists directly estimated data types and their common abbreviations. Directly estimated data types except for AE are collectively called non-AE data types.
Data Type | Abbreviation |
---|---|
All employees | AE |
Production and nonsupervisory employees | PE |
Women employees | WE |
Average weekly hours of all employees | AE AWH |
Average hourly earnings of all employees | AE AHE |
Average weekly overtime hours of all employees | AE AWOH |
Average weekly hours of production and nonsupervisory employees | PE AWH |
Average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory employees | PE AHE |
Average weekly overtime hours of production and nonsupervisory employees | PE AWOH |
The aggregate industry levels of the hours and earnings series are derived as a weighted average. AE and PE estimates for basic cells act as weights for their respective hours and earnings estimates for broader industry groupings. Adjustments of AE estimates to new benchmarks may alter the implicit weights used for both AE and PE hours and earnings, which, in turn, may change the estimates for both AE and PE hours and earnings at higher levels of aggregation.
Generally, new employment benchmarks have little effect on hours and earnings estimates for major industry groupings. To influence the hours and earnings estimates of a broader industry group, employment revisions have to be relatively large and must affect industries that have hours or earnings averages that are substantially different from those of other industries in their broader group.
Table 6 and table 7 provide information on the not seasonally adjusted levels of major industry sector hours and earnings series resulting from the March 2020 benchmark. At the total private level, there was no change in average weekly hours estimates for AE or PE from the previously published level. Total private average hourly earnings increased by 3 cents for AE and increased by 4 cents for PE from the previously published level.
Benchmark effects on hours and earnings for more detailed industries can be found at www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbmart-tables.htm.
CES Industry Code | CES Industry Title | Average Weekly Hours | Average Hourly Earnings | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Estimated | Revised | Difference | Estimated | Revised | Difference | ||
05-000000 |
Total private |
34.3 | 34.3 | 0.0 | $28.88 | $28.91 | $0.03 |
06-000000 |
Goods-producing |
39.9 | 39.9 | 0.0 | 29.66 | 29.66 | 0.00 |
08-000000 |
Private service-providing |
33.2 | 33.2 | 0.0 | 28.70 | 28.73 | 0.03 |
10-000000 |
Mining and logging |
45.3 | 45.4 | 0.1 | 35.21 | 34.89 | -0.32 |
20-000000 |
Construction |
38.6 | 38.6 | 0.0 | 31.33 | 31.35 | 0.02 |
30-000000 |
Manufacturing |
40.4 | 40.4 | 0.0 | 28.41 | 28.42 | 0.01 |
31-000000 |
Durable goods |
40.7 | 40.7 | 0.0 | 29.75 | 29.76 | 0.01 |
32-000000 |
Nondurable goods |
39.8 | 39.8 | 0.0 | 26.10 | 26.11 | 0.01 |
40-000000 |
Trade, transportation, and utilities |
34.2 | 34.2 | 0.0 | 24.86 | 24.84 | -0.02 |
41-420000 |
Wholesale trade |
39.1 | 39.1 | 0.0 | 31.95 | 31.93 | -0.02 |
42-000000 |
Retail trade |
30.7 | 30.7 | 0.0 | 20.35 | 20.36 | 0.01 |
43-000000 |
Transportation and warehousing |
37.8 | 37.8 | 0.0 | 25.26 | 25.16 | -0.10 |
44-220000 |
Utilities |
42.1 | 42.1 | 0.0 | 42.84 | 42.82 | -0.02 |
50-000000 |
Information |
36.7 | 36.8 | 0.1 | 43.57 | 43.66 | 0.09 |
55-000000 |
Financial activities |
38.2 | 38.2 | 0.0 | 37.20 | 37.20 | 0.00 |
60-000000 |
Professional and business services |
36.4 | 36.4 | 0.0 | 34.92 | 34.94 | 0.02 |
65-000000 |
Education and health services |
33 | 33 | 0.0 | 27.94 | 28.06 | 0.12 |
70-000000 |
Leisure and hospitality |
24.4 | 24.4 | 0.0 | 16.90 | 16.93 | 0.03 |
80-000000 |
Other services |
31.7 | 31.6 | -0.1 | 25.99 | 26.18 | 0.19 |
CES Industry Code | CES Industry Title | Average Weekly Hours | Average Hourly Earnings | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Estimated | Revised | Difference | Estimated | Revised | Difference | ||
05-000000 |
Total private |
33.5 | 33.5 | 0.0 | $24.23 | $24.27 | $0.04 |
06-000000 |
Goods-producing |
40.5 | 40.5 | 0.0 | 25.13 | 25.14 | 0.01 |
08-000000 |
Private service-providing |
32.3 | 32.3 | 0.0 | 24.05 | 24.09 | 0.04 |
10-000000 |
Mining and logging |
45.8 | 45.9 | 0.1 | 31.09 | 30.99 | -0.10 |
20-000000 |
Construction |
38.9 | 38.9 | 0.0 | 28.95 | 28.97 | 0.02 |
30-000000 |
Manufacturing |
41.1 | 41.1 | 0.0 | 22.57 | 22.58 | 0.01 |
31-000000 |
Durable goods |
41.3 | 41.3 | 0.0 | 23.55 | 23.56 | 0.01 |
32-000000 |
Nondurable goods |
40.8 | 40.8 | 0.0 | 20.97 | 20.97 | 0.00 |
40-000000 |
Trade, transportation, and utilities |
33.9 | 34 | 0.1 | 21.05 | 21.04 | -0.01 |
41-420000 |
Wholesale trade |
38.7 | 38.7 | 0.0 | 26.49 | 26.47 | -0.02 |
42-000000 |
Retail trade |
30.5 | 30.5 | 0.0 | 17.04 | 17.04 | 0.00 |
43-000000 |
Transportation and warehousing |
37.7 | 37.7 | 0.0 | 22.70 | 22.60 | -0.10 |
44-220000 |
Utilities |
42.5 | 42.5 | 0.0 | 37.87 | 37.85 | -0.02 |
50-000000 |
Information |
35.8 | 35.9 | 0.1 | 34.86 | 34.98 | 0.12 |
55-000000 |
Financial activities |
37.3 | 37.3 | 0.0 | 28.66 | 28.67 | 0.01 |
60-000000 |
Professional and business services |
35.7 | 35.7 | 0.0 | 28.90 | 28.92 | 0.02 |
65-000000 |
Education and health services |
32.2 | 32.2 | 0.0 | 24.88 | 24.98 | 0.10 |
70-000000 |
Leisure and hospitality |
23.1 | 23.1 | 0.0 | 14.69 | 14.71 | 0.02 |
80-000000 |
Other services |
30.7 | 30.6 | -0.1 | 22.14 | 22.34 | 0.20 |
The difference between CES estimates and the population employment results from various sources, and disaggregating it into its components is complex. Both are subject to nonresponse and reporting error. Additionally, the CES estimates are subject to sampling error and business birth-death modeling error. A analysis of error in the birth-death model and the effect of those errors on CES estimation follows.
The CES sample alone is not sufficient for estimating the total nonfarm employment level because each month new establishments generate employment that cannot be captured through the sample. There is an unavoidable lag between an establishment opening for business and its appearance on the CES sample frame. The sample frame is built from UI quarterly tax records. These records cover virtually all U.S. employers and include business births, but they only become available for updating the CES sampling frame 7 to 9 months after the reference month. After the births appear on the frame, there is also time required for sampling, contacting, and soliciting cooperation from the establishments, and verifying the initial data provided. In practice, BLS cannot sample and begin to collect data from new establishments until they are at least a year old.
BLS has researched both sample-based and model-based approaches to measuring employment from business births and deaths that have not yet appeared on the UI universe frame. The research demonstrated that sampling for births was not feasible in the very short CES production timeframes, so BLS uses a model-based approach to account for this employment. This model incorporates two components. The first component is an indirect imputation for business deaths. The second component is an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series model designed to estimate the net birth-death employment not accounted for by the imputation from the first component. More information on the CES birth-death model is available in the Birth-Death Model section of the CES Technical Notes.
Only error from the second component is directly measurable. Error from this component is measured by comparing the actual net of births and deaths with the model-based forecast that was used in the CES sample-based estimates. Most recently, the data from April 2019 to March 2020 can be measured. As table 8 shows, the actual net birth-death from April 2019 to March 2020 was approximately 242,000 below the forecast used in the CES monthly estimates for the same period.
Benchmark 2020 | 2019 | 2020 | Total | ||||||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | ||
Actual Net Birth-Death |
286 | 220 | 71 | 234 | 117 | -118 | 340 | 27 | -58 | -140 | 123 | -278 | 824 |
Forecast Net Birth-Death |
282 | 209 | 109 | 186 | 95 | -75 | 304 | -16 | -52 | -145 | 143 | 26 | 1,066 |
Difference |
4 | 11 | -38 | 48 | 22 | -43 | 36 | 43 | -6 | 5 | -20 | -304 | -242 |
Cumulative Difference |
4 | 15 | -23 | 25 | 47 | 4 | 40 | 83 | 77 | 82 | 62 | -242 |
From April 2020 to December 2020, also called the post-benchmark period, CES estimates were recalculated for each month based primarily on new benchmark levels and new net birth-death forecasts. Net birth-death forecasts were revised to incorporate information from the most recent year of universe employment counts. Table 9 shows the net birth-death values for the supersectors over the post-benchmark period. From April 2020 to December 2020, the net birth-death model cumulatively added 796,000 jobs, compared with 789,000 in the previously published April 2020 to December 2020 employment estimates.
CES Industry Code | CES Industry Title | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Cumulative Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-000000 |
Mining and logging |
-3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | -1 |
20-000000 |
Construction |
-41 | 73 | 31 | 9 | 10 | 4 | 29 | -9 | -11 | 95 |
30-000000 |
Manufacturing |
-37 | 14 | 21 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 16 |
40-000000 |
Trade, transportation, and utilities |
-72 | 25 | 20 | 19 | 18 | 17 | 49 | 10 | 10 | 96 |
41-420000(1) |
Wholesale trade |
-21 | 3 | -7 | -2 | -4 | 0 | 9 | 2 | 2 | -18 |
42-000000(1) |
Retail trade |
-28 | 18 | 18 | 12 | 12 | 8 | 23 | -4 | 4 | 63 |
43-000000(1) |
Transportation and warehousing |
-23 | 4 | 9 | 8 | 10 | 9 | 17 | 12 | 4 | 50 |
44-220000(1) |
Utilities |
0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
50-000000 |
Information |
3 | 4 | -1 | 6 | 4 | -1 | 9 | 4 | -1 | 27 |
55-000000 |
Financial activities |
-11 | 11 | -1 | 10 | 11 | -2 | 30 | 3 | 9 | 60 |
60-000000 |
Professional and business services |
-171 | 32 | 17 | 78 | 43 | -33 | 134 | 4 | 31 | 135 |
65-000000 |
Education and health services |
-24 | 24 | -14 | 40 | 21 | -7 | 70 | 8 | -14 | 104 |
70-000000 |
Leisure and hospitality |
-105 | 124 | 154 | 89 | 25 | -43 | 22 | -23 | -4 | 239 |
80-000000 |
Other services |
-9 | 12 | 8 | 2 | 6 | -3 | 13 | -1 | -3 | 25 |
Total private net birth-death forecast |
-470 | 319 | 235 | 254 | 142 | -64 | 363 | -1 | 18 | 796 | |
Footnotes |
Current estimates of not seasonally adjusted employment include both a sample-based component and a model-based component. The model-based portion, called the net birth-death forecast, is intended to account for businesses that have closed or opened since the sample was initially drawn. While this model performs well in times of relative stability, it has not traditionally included a mechanism to account for rapid changes in the most recent months of employment estimates.
In March 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic created a severe economic shock to the global economy, resulting in massive job losses across the United States. This widespread disruption to labor markets and the potential impact to the birth-death model prompted BLS to revisit research conducted after the Great Recession (2007-09) and incorporate new ideas to account for changes in the number of business openings and closings. Two areas of research were implemented to improve the accuracy of the birth-death model in the CES estimates. These adjustments better reflect the net effect of the contribution of business births and deaths to the estimates. These two methodological changes, one to adjust each of the two steps in the birth-death model, are the following:
A portion of both reported zero employment and returns from zero in the current month from the sample were used in estimation to better account for the fact that business births and deaths do not offset.
Current sample growth rates were included in the net birth-death forecasting model to better account for the changing relationships between business openings and closings.
First, a proportion of reports that fell to zero employment and reports that returned from zero employment in each month were used to adjust the weighted contribution of each report used in the calculation of the over-the-month change of the sample-based estimates. Typically, reports with zero employment in either the previous or current month are not included in estimation. To account for an excess amount of reports going to zero employment and reports returning from zero employment, BLS calculated the likelihood that either a reported zero or a return from zero exceeded what would be expected for the month. These "excess declines to zero" and "excess returns from zero" (collectively called excess reported zeroes) partially account for drops in employment (when more business deaths than are usually observed in historical population data occur) and for increases in employment (when there are more business births than normal). More specifically, "excess declines to zero" were used in March final and subsequent months' first preliminary, second preliminary, and final estimates. "Excess returns from zero" were used in first, second, and final estimates from May to the present.
Second, BLS adjusted the portion of business births and deaths that cannot be accounted for using sample data by including more recent information. Net birth-death forecasts are normally modeled using an ARIMA based on over-the-month changes of 5 years of historical birth-death residual values that end 9 months before the forecast of the current month. Instead of using only historical data—data that would not accurately account for how the labor market has changed due to COVID-19—a regression variable that includes data up to the current month was included in the model. The regression variable is the CES sample-based ratio of over-the-month change, known as the sample link, for each of the major industry sectors. Each major industry sector sample link was used as a regressor for the basic-level industry forecasts only within that sector.
The use of sample links as regression variables in the model initially accounted for a difference of −174,000 in the net birth-death forecasts from April 2020 to December 2020, with a range from −799,000 to 222,000. Exhibit 1 below outlines monthly differences due to the inclusion of the sample link regressor.
2020 | Preliminary Forecast | Revised Forecast | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
With Adjustment | Without Adjustment | Difference | With Adjustment | Without Adjustment | Difference | |
April |
-553 | 246 | -799 | -470 | 282 | -752 |
May |
345 | 207 | 138 | 319 | 203 | 116 |
June |
295 | 73 | 222 | 235 | 68 | 167 |
July |
241 | 193 | 48 | 254 | 211 | 43 |
August |
154 | 104 | 50 | 142 | 95 | 47 |
September |
-62 | -99 | 37 | -64 | -96 | 32 |
October |
344 | 293 | 51 | 363 | 313 | 50 |
November |
6 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 0 | -1 |
December |
19 | -56 | 75 | 18 | -48 | 66 |
Total |
789 | 963 | -174 | 796 | 1,028 | -232 |
The effect of these adjustments to CES estimates of employment reflect the pronounced impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. Exhibit 2 illustrates the difference at the total private level between the published CES estimates that do use these two adjustments and a simulated CES series calculated without using either adjustment. The total private benchmark revision amount applied to March 2020 was −184,000. Without these adjustments to the birth-death model, the benchmark revision amount would have been 385,000 lower, or −569,000.
2020 | Total Private Employment with Adjustments | Total Private Employment without Adjustments | Difference |
---|---|---|---|
March |
127,009(1) | 127,394 | -385 |
April |
108,158 | 111,786 | -3,628 |
May |
111,865 | 114,768 | -2,903 |
June |
117,309 | 119,280 | -1,972 |
July |
118,805 | 120,514 | -1,708 |
August |
119,717 | 121,313 | -1,596 |
September |
120,110 | 121,643 | -1,533 |
October |
121,571 | 123,024 | -1,453 |
November |
122,161 | 123,593 | -1,433 |
December |
122,026 | 123,418 | -1,392 |
Footnotes |
BLS continues to use sample links that account for excess reported zeroes and adjusted net birth-death forecasts in monthly employment estimates. Research is being done on a monthly basis into when to return to normal estimation. Several factors are being monitored, including reverting to expected proportions of units that newly report zero or return from zero in the current month, resumption of previous patterns in the birth-death forecasts, and some combination of the two.
Every quarter, the QCEW program imputes employment for UI accounts where reports were not received or were received but contained only wage information and no employment data. Typically, only a small concentration of worksites and employment are imputed. In the November 2020 QCEW news release of second quarter 2020 data and second published version of first quarter 2020 data, BLS implemented improvements to QCEW imputation methodology. Improvements to the QCEW imputation methodology are described in more detail at www.bls.gov/cew/additional-resources/imputation-methodology.htm.
Changes in the QCEW imputation methodology had little effect on the CES-National March 2020 benchmark. The total effect of the new imputation methodology on the QCEW portion of the employment population count was 0.02 percent.
With the release of the January 2021 first preliminary estimates on February 5, 2021, BLS incorporated series changes related to annual sample adequacy and disclosure review.
The CES small domain model is a weighted least squares model with two employment inputs: (1) an estimate based on available CES sample for that series, and (2) an ARIMA projection based on trend from 10 years of historical QCEW data. CES-National began using the small domain model in 2007. For more information about it, see the Small Domain Model section of the CES Technical Notes.
Two series estimated using the small domain model have been discontinued along with their component industries: direct health and medical insurance carriers (55-524114) and recreational and vacation camps (70-721214).
Two other series have received adequate sample and have stopped using the small domain model: other technical consulting services (60-541690) and remediation services (60-562910). These series are now being estimated using the standard CES weighted-link-relative technique.
BLS will continue to use the model for estimates in lessors of nonfinancial intangible assets (55-533000) and tax preparation services (60-541213).
All CES series are evaluated annually for sample size, coverage, and response rates. The following changes result from a re-evaluation of the sample and universe coverage for CES industries, which are based on NAICS 2017. Some industries no longer have sufficient sample to be estimated and published separately and were discontinued or combined with other similar industries for estimation and publication purposes. This information is also available at www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesnewseries.htm.
A list of currently published CES series is available at www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesseriespub.htm.
NAICS Code | Previous | New | ||
---|---|---|---|---|
CES Industry Code | CES Industry Title | CES Industry Code | CES Industry Title | |
56145,9 |
60-561490 | Other business support services | 60-561490 | Other business support services, including credit bureaus |
In order to more easily identify affected series and because AE series are published at a more detailed industry level than non-AE series, series changes are shown for AE and non-AE data types. The first two tables in this section reference the AE data type and the third table references all non-AE data types. The tables display an AE collapse and discontinued series for AE and non-AE data types. Discontinued series tables (table 11 and table 13) display series for which the data types noted are no longer published. The collapsed series table (table 12) displays series for which the data types noted are no longer published because the industry no longer has sufficient sample to be estimated and published separately. Affected industries have been combined with other similar industries for estimation and publication purposes. Historical data for these series were reconstructed to provide consistent time series. Industries that are no longer published for AE will also no longer be published for other directly estimated data types or derivative series.
NAICS Code | CES Industry Code | CES Industry Title | Next Highest Published Industry |
---|---|---|---|
332721 |
31-332721 | Precision turned products | Turned products and screws, nuts, and bolts (31-332720) |
332722 |
31-332722 | Bolts, nuts, screws, rivets, and washers | Turned products and screws, nuts, and bolts (31-332720) |
3152 |
32-315200 | Cut and sew apparel | Apparel (32-315000) |
31521 |
32-315210 | Cut and sew apparel contractors | Apparel (32-315000) |
3151,9 |
32-315900 | All other apparel manufacturing | Apparel (32-315000) |
524113 |
55-524113 | Direct life insurance carriers | Direct life and health insurance carriers (55-524110) |
524114 |
55-524114 | Direct health and medical insurance carriers | Direct life and health insurance carriers (55-524110) |
721211 |
70-721211 | RV parks and campgrounds | RV parks and recreational camps (70-721200) |
721214 |
70-721214 | Recreational and vacation camps | RV parks and recreational camps (70-721200) |
Previous | New | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|
NAICS Code |
CES Industry Code | CES Industry Title | NAICS Code | CES Industry Code | CES Industry Title |
56145 |
60-561450 | Credit bureaus | 56145,9 | 60-561490 | Other business support services, including credit bureaus |
56149 |
60-561490 | Other business support services | |||
NAICS Code | CES Industry Code | CES Industry Title | Discontinued From Publication | Next Highest Published Industry |
---|---|---|---|---|
3334 |
31-333400 | HVAC and commercial refrigeration equipment | PE AWOH | Machinery (31-333000) |
33391 |
31-333910 | Pumps and compressors | WE | Other general purpose machinery (31-333900) |
33399 |
31-333990 | All other general purpose machinery | WE | Other general purpose machinery (31-333900) |
336211 |
31-336211 | Motor vehicle bodies | AE AWH, AE AHE, AE AWOH, WE | Motor vehicle bodies and trailers (31-336200) |
33637 |
31-336370 | Motor vehicle metal stamping | AE AWH, AE AHE | Motor vehicle parts (31-336300) |
339116 |
31-339116 | Dental laboratories | PE, PE AWH, PE AHE | Medical equipment and supplies (31-339100) |
3132 |
32-313200 | Fabric mills | WE | Textile mills (32-313000) |
3141 |
32-314100 | Textile furnishings mills | WE | Textile product mills (32-314000) |
3149 |
32-314900 | Other textile product mills | WE | Textile product mills (32-314000) |
3261 |
32-326100 | Plastics products | PE AWOH | Plastics and rubber products (32-326000) |
32611 |
32-326110 | Plastics packaging materials, film, and sheet | PE AWOH | Plastics and rubber products (32-326000) |
32614,5 |
32-326150 | Foam products | PE AWOH | Plastics and rubber products (32-326000) |
32619 |
32-326190 | Other plastics products | PE AWOH | Plastics and rubber products (32-326000) |
3262 |
32-326200 | Rubber products | PE AWOH | Plastics and rubber products (32-326000) |
42493 |
41-424930 | Nursery stock and florists' supplies | PE, PE AWH, PE AHE | Misc. nondurable goods (41-424900) |
5323 |
55-532300 | General rental centers | PE, PE AWH, PE AHE | Rental and leasing services (55-532000) |
71321 |
70-713210 | Casinos, except casino hotels | WE | Gambling industries (70-713200) |
71329 |
70-713290 | Other gambling industries | WE | Gambling industries (70-713200) |
811118 |
80-811118 | Other automotive mechanical and elec. repair | AE AWH, AE AHE | Automotive mechanical and electrical repair (80-811110) |
81231 |
80-812310 | Coin-operated laundries and drycleaners | PE, PE AWH, PE AHE | Drycleaning and laundry services (80-812300) |
81232 |
80-812320 | Drycleaning and laundry services, except coin-operated | PE, PE AWH, PE AHE | Drycleaning and laundry services (80-812300) |
LABSTAT, the BLS public database, contains all historical employment, hours, and earnings data revised as a result of this benchmark, including both not seasonally adjusted and seasonally adjusted data. The data can be accessed at www.bls.gov/ces/data/home.htm, the CES-National Database page.
Previously published data are available on both a not seasonally adjusted and seasonally adjusted basis for all CES industries down to the 3-digit level from the CES Vintage Data page. CES vintage data are typically updated in late February following the annual benchmark revision.
Benchmarks for detailed industries can be found at www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbmart-tables.htm.
Last Modified Date: February 5, 2021