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Current Employment Statistics - CES (National)

CES National Benchmark Article (PDF)

BLS Establishment Survey National Estimates Revised to Incorporate March 2023 Benchmarks

Summary of the revisions

With the release of January 2024 data on February 2, 2024, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) introduced its annual revision to national estimates of employment, hours, and earnings from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) monthly survey of nonfarm establishments.

The March 2023 benchmarked, seasonally adjusted employment level for total nonfarm employment is 155,206,000. The not seasonally adjusted benchmarked employment level is 154,253,000.

Compared with the sample-based, seasonally adjusted published estimate for March 2023, total nonfarm employment had a revision of −266,000 or −0.2 percent. The not seasonally adjusted total nonfarm employment estimate was revised by −187,000 or −0.1 percent.

Table 1 presents revised total nonfarm employment data on a seasonally adjusted basis for January 2023 through December 2023. The revised data for April 2023 forward incorporate the effect of applying the rate of change measured by the sample to the new benchmark employment level, as well as updated net birth-death model forecasts and new seasonal adjustment factors. Revisions to November and December also reflect incorporation of additional sample receipts. For more information about the methodology of benchmarking in the CES program, see Benchmark in the Calculations section of the CES Handbook of Methods.

Table 1. Differences in seasonally adjusted levels and over-the-month changes, total nonfarm employment, January to December 2023 (in thousands)
2023 Levels Over-the-month Changes
As Revised As Previously Published Difference As Revised As Previously Published Difference

January

154,773 155,007 -234 482 472 10

February

155,060 155,255 -195 287 248 39

March

155,206 155,472 -266 146 217 -71

April

155,484 155,689 -205 278 217 61

May

155,787 155,970 -183 303 281 22

June

156,027 156,075 -48 240 105 135

July

156,211 156,311 -100 184 236 -52

August

156,421 156,476 -55 210 165 45

September

156,667 156,738 -71 246 262 -16

October

156,832 156,843 -11 165 105 60

November

157,014 157,016 -2 182 173 9

December(p)

157,347 157,232 115 333 216 117

Footnotes
(p) Preliminary.

To Table of Figures

Overview

Establishment survey benchmarking is done each year to align employment estimates from the survey with employment counts derived primarily from the administrative file of employees covered by Unemployment Insurance (UI). All employers covered by UI laws are required to report employment and wage information to the appropriate state UI agency four times per year. The UI data are obtained and edited by each state’s Labor Market Information agency. They are tabulated and published through the BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program. Both the QCEW and CES categorize their data using the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). About 97 percent of total nonfarm employment within the scope of the establishment survey is covered by UI and is available to the CES program via QCEW records.

An employment count for the remaining 3 percent is constructed from other sources, primarily records from the Railroad Retirement Board and U.S. Census Bureau data from County Business Patterns and the Annual Survey of Public Employment and Payroll. This 3 percent is referred to as noncovered employment. The combination of QCEW and noncovered employment data make up the benchmark level. The full benchmark employment level developed for March replaces the March sample-based estimate for each basic cell.

The total annual revision is the difference between the benchmark level for a given March and the published March sample-based employment estimate. The overall accuracy of the establishment survey is usually gauged by the size of the benchmark revision, which is often regarded as a proxy for total survey error. Typically, the total revision is equal to the benchmark revision—as is the case for this year’s benchmark revision. However, in years with historical reconstructions, affected CES series are re-estimated prior to benchmarking. The benchmark revision, in these cases, is the difference between the benchmark level and the newly reconstructed sample-based estimate. The benchmark revision is the difference between two independently derived employment counts, each subject to its own error sources.

To create a continuous time series between the new March benchmark level and historical sample-based data from the prior March benchmark level, employment estimates for the months between the most recent March benchmark and the previous year's benchmark are adjusted using a linear "wedge-back" procedure. This procedure assumes that the total estimation error accumulated at a steady rate since the last benchmark. For the 9 months following the March benchmark (also called the post-benchmark period), BLS applies previously derived over-the-month sample changes to the revised March level to get the revised estimates. New net birth-death model forecasts are also calculated and applied during post-benchmark estimation. More information on benchmarks in the CES program is available in Benchmark in the Calculation section of the CES Handbook of Methods.

Seasonally adjusted estimates

BLS seasonally adjusts 5 years of CES data with each annual benchmark for all industries and directly estimated data types. However, reconstructed series are seasonally adjusted over their revised time spans if the revised timespan is greater than 5 years. More information about seasonal adjustment of CES series is available on the CES Seasonal Adjustment webpage.

Table 2 presents revised employment data on a seasonally adjusted basis for March 2023 by major industry sector. The revision to seasonally adjusted total nonfarm employment is −266,000.

Table 2. Seasonally adjusted employment revisions for major industry sectors, March 2023 (in thousands)
CES Industry Code CES Industry Title As Revised As Previously Published Differences
Amount Percent

00-000000

Total nonfarm 155,206 155,472 -266 -0.2

05-000000

Total private 132,600 132,907 -307 -0.2

06-000000

Goods-producing 21,508 21,501 7 (1)

07-000000

Service-providing 133,698 133,971 -273 -0.2

08-000000

Private service-providing 111,092 111,406 -314 -0.3

10-000000

Mining and logging 635 635 0 (1)

20-000000

Construction 7,941 7,890 51 0.6

30-000000

Manufacturing 12,932 12,976 -44 -0.3

31-000000

Durable goods 8,074 8,092 -18 -0.2

32-000000

Nondurable goods 4,858 4,884 -26 -0.5

40-000000

Trade, transportation, and utilities 28,819 28,867 -48 -0.2

41-420000

Wholesale trade 6,096.2 6,047.9 48.3 0.8

42-000000

Retail trade 15,579.6 15,529.2 50.4 0.3

43-000000

Transportation and warehousing 6,571.9 6,735.1 -163.2 -2.5

44-220000

Utilities 571.6 554.3 17.3 3

50-000000

Information 3,054 3,092 -38 -1.2

55-000000

Financial activities 9,150 9,095 55 0.6

60-000000

Professional and business services 22,797 22,924 -127 -0.6

65-000000

Private education and health services 25,030 25,072 -42 -0.2

70-000000

Leisure and hospitality 16,447 16,518 -71 -0.4

80-000000

Other services 5,795 5,838 -43 -0.7

90-000000

Government 22,606 22,565 41 0.2
Footnotes

(1) Absolute revision is less than 0.05 percent.

To Table of Figures

Not seasonally adjusted estimates

Benchmark employment levels for March are compared to CES estimates that have not been seasonally adjusted to calculate the new March employment level. Twenty-one months of not seasonally adjusted CES estimates for all data types are revised based on this new March level, prior to seasonal adjustment. Revisions to not seasonally adjusted CES estimates are described below.

Not seasonally adjusted revisions

Table 3 presents the not seasonally adjusted employment benchmarks for March 2023 by major industry sector. The total revision to not seasonally adjusted total nonfarm employment is −187,000.

Table 3. Not seasonally adjusted employment benchmarks for major industry sectors, March 2023 (in thousands)
CES Industry Code CES Industry Title Benchmark Estimate Differences
Amount Percent
00-000000 Total nonfarm 154,253 154,440 -187 -0.1
05-000000 Total private 131,367 131,616 -249 -0.2
06-000000 Goods-producing 21,218 21,218 (1) (1)
07-000000 Service-providing 133,035 133,222 -187 -0.1
08-000000 Private service-providing 110,149 110,398 -249 -0.2
10-000000 Mining and logging 628 628 (1) (1)
20-000000 Construction 7,701 7,657 44 0.6
30-000000 Manufacturing 12,889 12,933 -44 -0.3
31-000000 Durable goods 8,054 8,077 -23 -0.3
32-000000 Nondurable goods 4,835 4,856 -21 -0.4
40-000000 Trade, transportation, and utilities 28,553 28,588 -35 -0.1
41-420000 Wholesale trade 6,072.1 6,022.3 49.8 0.8
42-000000 Retail trade 15,390.8 15,348.2 42.6 0.3
43-000000 Transportation and warehousing 6,519.4 6,664.5 -145.1 -2.2
44-220000 Utilities 570.4 552.9 17.5 3.1
50-000000 Information 3,036 3,072 -36 -1.2
55-000000 Financial activities 9,094 9,039 55 0.6
60-000000 Professional and business services 22,552 22,665 -113 -0.5
65-000000 Private education and health services 25,133 25,179 -46 -0.2
70-000000 Leisure and hospitality 16,031 16,060 -29 -0.2
80-000000 Other services 5,750 5,795 -45 -0.8
90-000000 Government 22,886 22,824 62 0.3
Footnotes

(1) Absolute revision is less than 0.05 percent.

To Table of Figures

Benchmarks for more detailed industries are available on the CES detailed industry tables webpage.

Table 4 below shows the recent history of not seasonally adjusted total nonfarm percent and level benchmark revisions. Over the prior 10 years, the annual benchmark revision at the total nonfarm level has averaged 0.1 percent (in absolute terms), with a range of −0.3 percent to 0.3 percent.

The differences listed in table 4 and beyond reflect the error due to normal benchmarking procedures after the incorporation of reconstructions. Those years are footnoted.

Table 4. Percent and level differences between nonfarm employment benchmarks and estimates by industry supersector (thousands), March 2013 to 2023
CES Industry Code CES Industry Title Type 2013(1) 2014 2015(2) 2016 2017(3) 2018(4) 2019(5) 2020 2021 2022(6) 2023

00-000000

Total nonfarm Percent -0.1 (7) -0.1 -0.1 0.1 (7) -0.3 -0.1 (7) 0.3 -0.1
Level -119 67 -172 -81 135 -16 -489 -121 -7 506 -187

05-000000

Total private Percent -0.1 0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.4 -0.1 -0.2 0.5 -0.2
Level -126 105 -232 -151 133 -104 -505 -184 -256 607 -249

10-000000

Mining and logging Percent -1.2 -1.8 -2.2 -3.2 -4.6 -1.1 -2.1 -4 -11.5 -3.1 (7)
Level -10 -16 -19 -22 -30 -8 -15 -27 -63 -18 (7)

20-000000

Construction Percent 0.3 1.6 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.6 -0.1 (7) -0.6 0.9 0.6
Level 14 90 39 47 52 44 -4 2 -41 70 44

30-000000

Manufacturing Percent 0.2 0.4 -0.1 0.5 0.1 -0.1 (7) -0.6 -0.3 0.2 -0.3
Level 23 43 -12 58 15 -18 -4 -75 -42 22 -44

40-000000

Trade, transportation, and utilities Percent -0.5 -0.1 (7) -0.4 0.3 -0.3 -0.4 0.1 1.1 0.1 -0.1
Level -131 -31 -5 -110 75 -77 -117 24 307 32 -35

41-420000(8)

Wholesale trade Percent -0.4 -0.8 -0.7 -1.1 -0.4 -0.9 -0.7 -0.8 -0.4 1.7 0.8
Level -20.2 -45.4 -41.3 -66.6 -21.2 -54.4 -38.6 -48 -23.6 101.1 49.8

42-000000(8)

Retail trade Percent -0.8 (7) -0.2 -0.8 0.1 -0.6 -1 -0.5 0.4 -1.6 0.3
Level -110.3 5.5 -23.5 -118.2 15.4 -96.4 -150.8 -78.3 57.9 -252.2 42.6

43-000000(8)

Transportation and warehousing Percent 0.1 0.2 1.4 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.4 2.6 4.5 2.6 -2.2
Level 3.6 9.7 65.3 83.5 79.8 72.7 75.8 148.9 270.1 170.1 -145.1

44-220000(8)

Utilities Percent -0.8 -0.1 -0.8 -1.6 0.2 0.3 -0.7 0.2 0.5 2.4 3.1
Level -4.6 -0.6 -4.7 -8.7 1 1.8 -4.1 1.1 2.8 13.3 17.5

50-000000

Information Percent -0.2 2.4 -1.6 -0.1 2.5 2.1 1.2 0.5 3 2.7 -1.2
Level -5 66 -44 -2 70 59 35 14 84 80 -36

55-000000

Financial activities Percent -0.1 0.2 -0.1 (7) 0.1 -0.1 0.8 0.3 -0.7 1.1 0.6
Level -10 19 -9 -4 7 -12 68 25 -64 94 55

60-000000

Professional and business services Percent (7) -0.8 -0.6 -0.6 -1.3 -0.4 -0.8 -0.6 1 1 -0.5
Level 4 -147 -110 -125 -270 -72 -159 -123 218 230 -113

65-000000

Private education and health services Percent -0.3 -0.1 (7) -0.4 0.3 (7) -0.4 -0.2 0.5 -0.3 -0.2
Level -61 -16 -7 -83 70 5 -95 -47 125 -69 -46

70-000000

Leisure and hospitality Percent 0.5 0.3 -0.3 0.7 0.8 (7) -1.1 0.2 -4.4 1.1 -0.2
Level 72 38 -45 102 126 -4 -170 31 -572 161 -29

80-000000

Other services Percent -0.4 1.1 -0.4 -0.2 0.3 -0.4 -0.8 -0.1 -3.9 0.1 -0.8
Level -22 59 -20 -12 18 -21 -44 -8 -208 5 -45

90-000000

Government Percent (7) -0.2 0.3 0.3 (7) 0.4 0.1 0.3 1.1 -0.5 0.3
Level 7 -38 60 70 2 88 16 63 249 -101 62

Footnotes:
(1) With the 2013 benchmark, CES reconstructed several national employment series. Each first quarter, the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program, whose data account for approximately 97 percent of the CES universe scope (see The Sample section of the CES Technical Notes), incorporates updated industry assignments. In 2013, these updates included two substantial groups of nonrandom, noneconomic code changes, one to funds, trusts, and other financial vehicles (NAICS 525), and the other, a reclassification of approximately 466,000 in employment from private households (NAICS 814), which is out of scope for CES, to services for the elderly and persons with disabilities (NAICS 62412), which is in scope. These changes also had an impact, beyond what would be considered typical for a given benchmark year, on corresponding CES series. For more information about the changes to these industries, see the QCEW First Quarter 2013 News Release or the Special notice regarding reconstructed data section in the 2013 CES Benchmark Article.
(2) With the 2015 benchmark, CES reconstructed the national employment series 65-624120, services for the elderly and persons with disabilities back to January 2000. CES previously reconstructed this series with the 2013 benchmark; however, between the 2013 and 2015 benchmark, a better source of information for the employment within NAICS 62412 for the state of California was found. The inclusion of the reconstructed series resulted in total nonfarm and total private employment that was 27,000 less than the originally published March 2015 estimate level. The difference between the benchmarked and originally published March 2015 estimate level is -199,000 or -0.1 percent. This table displays March 2015 data after accounting for the decrease of 27,000 from the reconstructed series. Similarly, for the private education and health services supersector, this table displays March 2015 data after incorporating the reconstructed series. For more information about this reconstruction, see the Reconstruction section of the 2015 Benchmark Article.
(3) With the 2017 benchmark, CES reconstructed the national employment series 60-561613, security guards and patrols and armored car services back to October 2016 to correct a microdata error. The inclusion of the reconstructed series resulted in total nonfarm and total private employment that was 3,000 more than the originally published March 2017 estimate level. The difference between the benchmarked and originally published March 2017 estimate level is 138,000 or 0.1 percent. This table displays March 2017 data after accounting for the increase of 3,000 from the reconstructed series. Similarly, for the professional and business services supersector, this table displays March 2017 data after incorporating the reconstructed series. For more information, see the Reconstructions section in the 2017 Benchmark Article.
(4) With the 2018 benchmark, CES reconstructed several national employment series. A recoding effort in the QCEW resulted in about 336,000 employment in wholesale trade agents and brokers (41-425120) moved into other series within the wholesale trade, retail trade, transportation and warehousing, and professional and business services major industry sectors. Affected basic-level series were reconstructed for their entire history, generally back to January 1990. Additionally, a reclassification of a state employer to private ownership caused a shift of about 17,000 employment from the CES series other state government (90-922999) into services for the elderly and persons with disabilities (65-624120). Affected basic-level series were reconstructed from March 2018 back to January 2018. For more information about this reconstruction, see the Reconstruction section in the 2018 CES Benchmark Article.
(5) With the 2019 benchmark, BLS reconstructed some national employment series in transportation to correct an error in rail transportation (43-482000), which had resulted in 16,000 in employment being double counted. The reconstruction removed the double-counted employment and affected aggregates of rail transportation, up to and including total nonfarm, back to January 1990. While the difference between the benchmarked and originally published March 2019 estimate level is -505,000, or -0.3 percent, this table displays March 2019 data after accounting for the removal of 16,000 from the published series. For more information, see the Reconstructions section in the 2019 CES Benchmark Article.
(6) With the 2022 benchmark, BLS reconstructed several national employment series. A recoding effort in the QCEW resulted in about 68,000 in employment in electronic shopping and mail-order houses (42-454100) being moved into corporate, subsidiary, and regional managing offices (60-551114). Affected series were reconstructed for their entire history going back to January 1990. Additionally, the CES program found that some QCEW employment microdata submitted for services for the elderly and persons with disabilities (NAICS 624120) was erroneously reported for the first quarter of 2022. CES imputed the March 2022 level for this industry, and the new level was approximately 83,000 greater than the originally reported QCEW level. For more information, see the Reconstructions and Adjustments to population data sections in the 2022 CES Benchmark Article.
(7) Absolute revision is less than 0.05 percent or fewer than 500 employees.
(8) Indented series are part of trade, transportation, and utilities.

To Table of Figures

Benchmark revision effects for other data types

Benchmarking also affects the series for production and nonsupervisory employees (PE) and women employees (WE). There are no benchmark employment levels for these series; they are revised by preserving ratios of employment for the particular data type to the all employee (AE) level prior to benchmarking, and then applying these ratios to the revised all employee level. These figures are calculated at the basic cell level and then aggregated to produce the summary estimates. Average weekly hours (AWH), average hourly earnings (AHE), and, in manufacturing industries, average weekly overtime hours (AWOH) are not benchmarked; they are estimated solely from reports supplied by survey respondents at the basic estimating cell level. New employment benchmarks can additionally affect indirectly estimated data types. For more information on indirectly estimated data types, see Derivative data in the Calculations section of the CES Handbook of Methods.

Table 5 lists directly estimated data types and their common abbreviations. Directly estimated data types except for AE are collectively called non-AE data types.

Table 5. Directly estimated data types
Data Type Abbreviation
All employees AE
Production and nonsupervisory employees PE
Women employees WE
Average weekly hours of all employees AE AWH
Average hourly earnings of all employees AE AHE
Average weekly overtime hours of all employees AE AWOH
Average weekly hours of production and nonsupervisory employees PE AWH
Average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory employees PE AHE
Average weekly overtime hours of production and nonsupervisory employees PE AWOH

To Table of Figures

The aggregate industry levels of the hours and earnings series are derived as a weighted average. AE and PE estimates for basic cells act as weights for their respective hours and earnings estimates for broader industry groupings. Adjustments of AE estimates to new benchmarks may alter the implicit weights used for both AE and PE hours and earnings, which, in turn, may change the estimates for both AE and PE hours and earnings at higher levels of aggregation.

Generally, new employment benchmarks have little effect on hours and earnings estimates for major industry groupings. To influence the hours and earnings estimates of a broader industry group, employment revisions have to be relatively large and must affect industries that have hours or earnings averages that are substantially different from those of other industries in their broader group.

Table 6 and table 7 provide information on the not seasonally adjusted levels of major industry sector hours and earnings series resulting from the March 2023 benchmark. At the total private level, there was no change in average weekly hours estimates for AE and PE from the previously published level. Total private average hourly earnings increased by 10 cents for AE and 9 cents for PE from the previously published level.

Benchmark effects on hours and earnings for more detailed industries are available on the CES detailed industry tables webpage.

Table 6. Effect of March 2023 benchmark revisions to all employees average weekly hours and average hourly earnings estimates, major industry sectors
CES Industry Code CES Industry Title Average Weekly Hours Average Hourly Earnings
Estimated Revised Difference Estimated Revised Difference

05-000000

Total private

34.2 34.2 0.0 $33.15 $33.26 $0.11

06-000000

Goods-producing

39.8 39.8 0.0 33.4 33.41 0.01

08-000000

Private service-providing

33.1 33.1 0.0 33.09 33.22 0.13

10-000000

Mining and logging

45.5 45.5 0.0 37.27 37.27 0.0

20-000000

Construction

38.5 38.5 0.0 35.88 35.89 0.01

30-000000

Manufacturing

40.3 40.2 -0.1 31.78 31.78 0.0

31-000000

Durable goods

40.8 40.8 0.0 33.27 33.28 0.01

32-000000

Nondurable goods

39.4 39.4 0.0 29.21 29.2 -0.01

40-000000

Trade, transportation, and utilities

33.6 33.6 0.0 28.56 28.63 0.07

41-420000

Wholesale trade

38.5 38.5 0.0 36.2 36.16 -0.04

42-000000

Retail trade

29.7 29.7 0.0 23.64 23.64 0.0

43-000000

Transportation and warehousing

37.6 37.6 0.0 28.47 28.69 0.22

44-220000

Utilities

42.4 42.4 0.0 49.57 49.64 0.07

50-000000

Information

35.9 36.1 0.2 47.76 47.91 0.15

55-000000

Financial activities

37.2 37.2 0.0 42.68 42.65 -0.03

60-000000

Professional and business services

36.2 36.2 0.0 39.89 39.96 0.07

65-000000

Private education and health services

33.2 33.2 0.0 32.56 32.83 0.27

70-000000

Leisure and hospitality

25.4 25.4 0.0 20.93 20.96 0.03

80-000000

Other services

32.2 32.1 -0.1 29.63 30.19 0.56

To Table of Figures

Table 7. Effect of March 2023 benchmark revisions to production employees average weekly hours and average hourly earnings estimates, major industry sectors
CES Industry Code CES Industry Title Average Weekly Hours Average Hourly Earnings
Estimated Revised Difference Estimated Revised Difference

05-000000

Total private

33.6 33.6 0.0 $28.47 $28.56 $0.09

06-000000

Goods-producing

40.2 40.2 0.0 28.92 28.94 0.02

08-000000

Private service-providing

32.5 32.5 0.0 28.38 28.48 0.1

10-000000

Mining and logging

47.8 47.8 0.0 33.66 33.67 0.01

20-000000

Construction

39.0 39.0 0.0 33.53 33.54 0.01

30-000000

Manufacturing

40.6 40.6 0.0 25.91 25.91 0.0

31-000000

Durable goods

40.9 40.9 0.0 27.04 27.02 -0.02

32-000000

Nondurable goods

40.2 40.2 0.0 24.07 24.08 0.01

40-000000

Trade, transportation, and utilities

33.6 33.6 0.0 24.85 24.9 0.05

41-420000

Wholesale trade

38.5 38.5 0.0 29.96 29.94 -0.02

42-000000

Retail trade

30.0 30.0 0.0 20.26 20.27 0.01

43-000000

Transportation and warehousing

37.1 37.1 0.0 27.2 27.38 0.18

44-220000

Utilities

42.6 42.6 0.0 43.77 43.78 0.01

50-000000

Information

35.6 35.7 0.1 38.76 38.92 0.16

55-000000

Financial activities

36.9 36.9 0.0 33.44 33.41 -0.03

60-000000

Professional and business services

36.0 36.0 0.0 33.78 33.81 0.03

65-000000

Private education and health services

32.5 32.4 -0.1 29.7 29.96 0.26

70-000000

Leisure and hospitality

24.1 24.1 0.0 18.5 18.5 0.0

80-000000

Other services

31.1 31.1 0.0 25.4 25.94 0.54

To Table of Figures

Net birth-death revisions

The difference between CES estimates and the population employment results from various sources. Disaggregating it into its components is complex. Both data sources are subject to nonresponse and reporting error. Additionally, the CES estimates are subject to sampling error and business birth and death modeling error.

The CES sample alone is not sufficient for estimating the total nonfarm employment level because each month, new establishments generate employment that cannot be captured through the sample. There is an unavoidable lag between an establishment opening for business and its appearance on the CES sample frame. The sample frame is built from UI quarterly tax records. These records cover virtually all U.S. employers and include business births, but they only become available for updating the CES sampling frame 7 to 9 months after the reference month. After the births appear on the frame, there is also time required for sampling, contacting, and soliciting cooperation from the establishments, and verifying the initial data provided. In practice, BLS cannot sample and begin to collect data from new establishments until they are at least a year old.

BLS has researched both sample-based and model-based approaches to measuring employment from business births and deaths that have not yet appeared on the UI universe frame. The research demonstrated that sampling for births was not feasible in the very short CES production timeframes, so BLS uses a model-based approach to account for this employment. This model incorporates two components. The first component is an indirect imputation for business deaths. The second component is an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series model designed to estimate the net birth-death employment not accounted for by the imputation from the first component. More information on the CES birth-death model is available in Business births and deaths in the Calculation section of the CES Handbook of Methods.

An analysis of error in the birth-death model and the effect of those errors on CES estimation follows.

Forecasted vs. actual net birth-death

Only error from the model-based component of CES estimation is directly measurable. Error from this component is measured by comparing the actual net of births and deaths with the model-based forecast that was used in the CES sample-based estimates during the previous benchmark year. Most recently, the data from April 2022 to March 2023 can be measured. As table 8 shows, the actual net birth-death from April 2022 to March 2023 was approximately 330,000 below the forecast used in the CES monthly estimates for the same period.

Table 8. Differences between forecasted and actual net birth-death, total private employment, April 2022 to March 2023 (in thousands)
Benchmark 2023 2022 2023 Total
Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

Actual Net Birth-Death

455 202 50 236 89 -74 311 1 -32 -192 117 -31 1,132

Forecast Net Birth-Death

323 254 93 327 120 -153 511 21 -37 -144 176 -29 1,462

Difference

132 -52 -43 -91 -31 79 -200 -20 5 -48 -59 -2 -330

Cumulative Difference

132 80 37 -54 -85 -6 -206 -226 -221 -269 -328 -330

To Table of Figures

Net birth-death adjustments to the post-benchmark period

From April 2023 to December 2023, also called the post-benchmark period, CES estimates were recalculated for each month based primarily on new benchmark levels and new net birth-death forecasts. Net birth-death forecasts were revised to incorporate information from the most recent year of universe employment counts. Table 9 shows the net birth-death values for the supersectors over the post-benchmark period. From April 2023 to December 2023, the net birth-death model cumulatively added 1,356,000 jobs, compared with 1,263,000 in the previously published April 2023 to December 2023 employment estimates.

Table 9. Net birth-death forecasts by industry supersector, April to December 2023 (in thousands)
CES Industry Code CES Industry Title Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Cumulative Total

10-000000

Mining and logging

0 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 5

20-000000

Construction

41 36 21 12 11 -2 27 -10 -17 119

30-000000

Manufacturing

3 9 4 2 5 0 10 2 1 36

40-000000

Trade, transportation, and utilities

17 29 10 36 21 2 74 17 6 212

41-420000(1)

Wholesale trade

-2 6 -4 5 2 -7 16 1 0 17

42-000000(1)

Retail trade

16 15 9 20 11 3 34 2 -1 109

43-000000(1)

Transportation and warehousing

3 8 5 10 8 6 24 14 7 85

44-220000(1)

Utilities

0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 1

50-000000

Information

10 6 1 7 5 -3 8 4 2 40

55-000000

Financial activities

14 4 -3 14 3 -11 38 1 10 70

60-000000

Professional and business services

126 41 -19 92 19 -32 134 7 -26 342

65-000000

Education and health services

43 21 -24 43 19 -21 89 12 -15 167

70-000000

Leisure and hospitality

96 88 84 81 21 -45 24 -26 -13 310

80-000000

Other services

18 9 6 7 5 -5 20 0 -5 55

Total private net birth-death forecast

368 244 81 295 110 -117 425 7 -57 1,356

Footnotes
(1) Indented industries are part of trade, transportation, and utilities.

To Table of Figures

Changes to the CES published series

With the release of the January 2024 first preliminary estimates on February 2, 2024, BLS incorporated series changes related to annual sample adequacy and disclosure review.

All CES series are evaluated annually for sample size, coverage, and response rates. The following changes result from a re-evaluation of the sample and universe coverage for CES industries, which are based on NAICS 2022. Some industries no longer have sufficient sample to be estimated and published separately and were discontinued or combined with other similar industries for estimation and publication purposes. This information is also available on the Notice of Publication Changes webpage.

In addition to the annual sample review, CES series are sometimes reconstructed to avoid series breaks and to provide users with comparable time series suitable for economic analysis. Reconstructed basic series are summed to aggregate levels using the normal CES aggregation methods (see the Aggregation procedures section in the CES Handbook of Methods), and, consequently, unadjusted aggregate employment series are subject to change from the detailed aggregate series to summary level aggregates within each the major industry sector. Hours and earnings series are subject to change from summary levels to major industry sector levels. Aggregate industries as well as component series used in indirect seasonal adjustment are also subject to change.

A list of currently published CES series is available on the CES Published Series webpage.

Table 10. Series with CES Industry Code or Title Changes
NAICS Code Previous New
CES Industry Code CES Industry Title CES Industry Code CES Industry Title

33991,2

31-339910 Jewelry and silverware manufacturing 31-339920 Jewelry, silverware, and sporting and athletic goods manufacturing

33991,2

31-339920 Sporting and athletic goods manufacturing

32511,2,3,8

32-325130 Petrochemical, industrial gas, synthetic dye, and pigment manufacturing 32-325180 Petrochemical, industrial gas, synthetic dye, pigment, and other basic inorganic chemical manufacturing

32511,2,3,8

32-325180 Other basic inorganic chemical manufacturing

711212,9

70-711212 Racetracks 70-711219 Racetracks and other spectator sports

711212,9

70-711219 Other spectator sports

To Table of Figures

To identify affected series more easily and because AE series are published at a more detailed industry level than non-AE series, series changes are shown separately for AE and non-AE data types. The first two tables in this section reference collapsed and discontinued series for AE only. The third table references discontinued series for all non-AE data types. Discontinued series tables (table 11 and table 13) display series for which the data types noted are no longer published. The collapsed series table (table 12) displays series for which the data types noted are published at a more aggregate level because the more detailed industry no longer has sufficient sample to be estimated and published separately. Affected industries have been combined with other similar industries for estimation and publication purposes. Historical data for these series were reconstructed to provide consistent time series. Industries that are no longer published for AE will also no longer be published for other directly estimated data types or derivative series.

Table 11. Discontinued AE Series
NAICS Code CES Industry Code CES Industry Title Next Highest Published Industry

327211,2

31-327212 Flat and other pressed and blown glass and glassware manufacturing Glass and glass product manufacturing (31-327200)

327213,5

31-327215 Glass product made of purchased glass and glass container manufacturing Glass and glass product manufacturing (31-327200)

336211

31-336211 Motor vehicle body manufacturing Motor vehicle body and trailer manufacturing (31-336200)

336212,3,4

31-336214 Truck trailer, motor home, travel trailer, and camper manufacturing Motor vehicle body and trailer manufacturing (31-336200)

326113

32-326113 Unlaminated plastics film and sheet, except packaging, manufacturing Plastics packaging materials and unlaminated film and sheet manufacturing (32-326110)

48531

43-485310 Taxi and ridesharing services Taxi and limousine service (43-485300)

48532

43-485320 Limousine service Taxi and limousine service (43-485300)

48831,3,9

43-488390 Port and harbor operations, navigational services to shipping, and other support activities for water transportation Support activities for water transportation (43-488300)

To Table of Figures

Table 12. Collapsed AE Series
Previous New

NAICS Code

CES Industry Code CES Industry Title NAICS Code CES Industry Code CES Industry Title

33991

31-339910 Jewelry and silverware manufacturing 33991,2 31-339920 Jewelry, silverware, and sporting and athletic goods manufacturing

33992

31-339920 Sporting and athletic goods manufacturing

32511,2,3

32-325130 Petrochemical, industrial gas, synthetic dye, and pigment manufacturing 32511,2,3,8 32-325180 Petrochemical, industrial gas, synthetic dye, pigment, and other basic inorganic chemical manufacturing

32518

32-325180 Other basic inorganic chemical manufacturing

711212

70-711212 Racetracks 711212,9 70-711219 Racetracks and other spectator sports

711219

70-711219 Other spectator sports

To Table of Figures

Table 13. Discontinued Non-AE Series
NAICS Code CES Industry Code CES Industry Title Discontinued From Publication Next Highest Published Industry

23834

20-238340 Tile and terrazzo contractors PE, PE AWH, PE AHE Building finishing contractors (20-238300)

23839

20-238390 Other building finishing contractors PE, PE AWH, PE AHE Building finishing contractors (20-238300)

3212

31-321200 Veneer, plywood, and engineered wood product manufacturing PE, PE AWH, PE AHE Wood product manufacturing (31-321000)

3219

31-321900 Other wood product manufacturing PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, PE AWOH Wood product manufacturing (31-321000)

3321

31-332100 Forging and stamping PE AWOH Fabricated metal product manufacturing (31-332000)

33271

31-332710 Machine shops PE AWOH Machine shops; turned product; and screw, nut, and bolt manufacturing (31-332700)

33272

31-332720 Turned product and screw, nut, and bolt manufacturing PE AWOH Machine shops; turned product; and screw, nut, and bolt manufacturing (31-332700)

332811,2

31-332812 Metal heat treating, coating, engraving (except jewelry and silverware), and allied services to manufacturers PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, PE AWOH Coating, engraving, heat treating, and allied activities (31-332800)

332813

31-332813 Electroplating, plating, polishing, anodizing, and coloring PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, PE AWOH Coating, engraving, heat treating, and allied activities (31-332800)

3334

31-333400 Ventilation, heating, air-conditioning, and commercial refrigeration equipment manufacturing AE AWOH Machinery manufacturing (31-333000)

3336

31-333600 Engine, turbine, and power transmission equipment manufacturing PE AWOH Machinery manufacturing (31-333000)

3339

31-333900 Other general purpose machinery manufacturing AE AWOH Machinery manufacturing (31-333000)

334416,7,9

31-334419 Capacitor, resistor, coil, transformer, other inductor, electronic connector, and other electronic component manufacturing PE AWOH Semiconductor and other electronic component manufacturing (31-334400)

311615

32-311615 Poultry processing PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, AE AWOH, PE AWOH Animal slaughtering and processing (32-311600)

31181

32-311810 Bread and bakery product manufacturing AE AWH, AE AHE, WE Bakeries and tortilla manufacturing (32-311800)

311811

32-311811 Retail bakeries AE AWH, AE AHE, WE Bakeries and tortilla manufacturing (32-311800)

31182,3

32-311830 Cookie, cracker, pasta, and tortilla manufacturing AE AWH, AE AHE, WE Bakeries and tortilla manufacturing (32-311800)

315

32-315000 Apparel manufacturing PE AWOH Nondurable goods (32-000000)

3251

32-325100 Basic chemical manufacturing PE AWOH Chemical manufacturing (32-325000)

3252

32-325200 Resin, synthetic rubber, and artificial and synthetic fibers and filaments manufacturing WE Chemical manufacturing (32-325000)

3256

32-325600 Soap, cleaning compound, and toilet preparation manufacturing AE AWOH, PE AWOH Chemical manufacturing (32-325000)

32614,5

32-326150 Polystyrene, urethane, and other foam product manufacturing AE AWH, AE AHE, PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, WE, AE AWOH Plastics product manufacturing (32-326100)

42332

41-423320 Brick, stone, and related construction material merchant wholesalers AE AWH, AE AHE Lumber and other construction materials merchant wholesalers (41-423300)

42333,9

41-423390 Roofing, siding, insulation, and other construction material merchant wholesalers AE AWH, AE AHE Lumber and other construction materials merchant wholesalers (41-423300)

42342

41-423420 Office equipment merchant wholesalers AE AWH, AE AHE Professional and commercial equipment and supplies merchant wholesalers (41-423400)

42341,4,6,9

41-423490 Ophthalmic goods and photographic, commercial, and professional equipment and supplies merchant wholesalers AE AWH, AE AHE Professional and commercial equipment and supplies merchant wholesalers (41-423400)

42394

41-423940 Jewelry, watch, precious stone, and precious metal merchant wholesalers AE AWH, AE AHE Miscellaneous durable goods merchant wholesalers (41-423900)

42392,9

41-423990 Toy and hobby goods and supplies and other miscellaneous durable goods merchant wholesalers AE AWH, AE AHE Miscellaneous durable goods merchant wholesalers (41-423900)

42411,2

41-424120 Printing and writing paper, stationery, and office supplies merchant wholesalers WE Paper and paper product merchant wholesalers (41-424100)

42413

41-424130 Industrial and personal service paper merchant wholesalers WE Paper and paper product merchant wholesalers (41-424100)

4242

41-424200 Drugs and druggists' sundries merchant wholesalers PE, PE AWH, PE AHE Merchant wholesalers, nondurable goods (41-424000)

4245

41-424500 Farm product raw material merchant wholesalers PE, PE AWH, PE AHE Merchant wholesalers, nondurable goods (41-424000)

53241

55-532410 Construction, transportation, mining, and forestry machinery and equipment rental and leasing PE, PE AWH, PE AHE Commercial and industrial machinery and equipment rental and leasing (55-532400)

53242,9

55-532490 Office, commercial, and industrial machinery and equipment rental and leasing PE, PE AWH, PE AHE Commercial and industrial machinery and equipment rental and leasing (55-532400)

56174

60-561740 Carpet and upholstery cleaning services AE AWH, AE AHE Services to buildings and dwellings (60-561700)

56179

60-561790 Other services to buildings and dwellings AE AWH, AE AHE Services to buildings and dwellings (60-561700)

71395

70-713950 Bowling centers PE, PE AWH, PE AHE Amusement, gambling, and recreation industries (70-713000)

81231

80-812310 Coin-operated laundries and drycleaners AE AWH, AE AHE Drycleaning and laundry services (80-812300)

81233

80-812330 Linen and uniform supply AE AWH, AE AHE Drycleaning and laundry services (80-812300)

To Table of Figures

Availability of revised data

LABSTAT, the BLS public database, contains all historical employment, hours, and earnings data revised as a result of this benchmark, including both not seasonally adjusted and seasonally adjusted data. The data can be accessed from the CES National Databases webpage.

Previously published data are available on both a not seasonally adjusted and seasonally adjusted basis for all CES industries down to the 3-digit level from the CES Vintage Data Information webpage. CES vintage data are typically updated in early March following the annual benchmark revision.

Benchmarks for detailed industries can be found at the CES detailed industry tables webpage.

Table of figures

Last Modified Date: February 2, 2024