CES National Benchmark Article (PDF)

BLS Establishment Survey National Estimates Revised to Incorporate March 2019 Benchmarks

• Summary of the revisions
  • IMPORTANT Special notice regarding seasonally adjusted historical data
• Overview
• Seasonally adjusted revisions
• Not seasonally adjusted revisions
• Benchmark revision effects for other data types
• Summary of research into sources of the revision
• CES and population differences
• QCEW imputation
• Revisions to net birth-death
  • Forecasted vs. actual net birth-death
  • Net birth-death adjustments to the post-benchmark period
• Research conclusions
• Reconstructions
  • Rail transportation processing error
  • Basic-level reconstruction methods
  • Aggregate-level reconstruction methods
  • Financial activities recoding
  • Basic-level reconstruction methods
  • Aggregate-level reconstruction methods
  • Seasonal adjustment in reconstructed series
• Changes to the CES published series
  • Series changes due to annual sample review
• Availability of revised data
• Table of figures
  • Tables
  • Exhibits

Authored by Lawrence Doppelt and Shane Haley.

Lawrence Doppelt and Shane Haley are economists in the Division of Current Employment Statistics – National, Office of Employment and Unemployment Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Telephone: (202) 691‑6555; email: Contact CES

Summary of the revisions

With the release of January 2020 data on February 7, 2020, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) introduced its annual revision to national estimates of employment, hours, and earnings from the Current Employment Statistics (CES) monthly survey of nonfarm establishments.

The March 2019 benchmarked seasonally adjusted employment level for total nonfarm employment is 150,282,000. The not seasonally adjusted benchmarked employment level is 149,359,000.

Compared with the sample-based, seasonally adjusted published estimate for March 2019, total nonfarm employment had a revision of −514,000, or −0.3 percent. The not seasonally adjusted total nonfarm employment estimate was revised by −505,000, or −0.3 percent.

Table 1 presents revised total nonfarm employment data on a seasonally adjusted basis for January 2019 through December 2019. The revised data for April 2019 forward incorporate the effect of applying the rate of change measured by the sample to the new benchmark employment level, as well as updated net birth-death model forecasts and new seasonal adjustment factors. Revisions to November and December also reflect incorporation of additional sample receipts. For more information about the methodology of benchmarking in the CES program, see the CES Technical Notes available at www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cestn.htm#section7b.

Table 1. Differences in seasonally adjusted levels and over-the-month changes, total nonfarm employment, January to December 2019 (in thousands)

2019	Levels			Over-the-month Changes
	As Revised	As Previously Published	Difference	As Revised	As Previously Published	Difference
January	150,134	150,587	-453	269	312	-43
February	150,135	150,643	-508	1	56	-55
March	150,282	150,796	-514	147	153	-6
April	150,492	151,012	-520	210	216	-6
May	150,577	151,074	-497	85	62	23
June	150,759	151,252	-493	182	178	4
July	150,953	151,418	-465	194	166	28
August	151,160	151,637	-477	207	219	-12
September	151,368	151,830	-462	208	193	15
October	151,553	151,982	-429	185	152	33
November	151,814	152,238	-424	261	256	5
December(p)	151,961	152,383	-422	147	145	2
Footnotes (p) Preliminary

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IMPORTANT Special notice regarding seasonally adjusted historical data

Due to several reconstructions, some seasonally adjusted series were revised further back than the usual five years. Affected series, including total nonfarm data, were revised back to 1990. For more information, see the Reconstructions section of this article.

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Overview

Establishment survey benchmarking is done on an annual basis to population employment counts derived primarily from the administrative file of employees covered by Unemployment Insurance (UI). All employers covered by UI laws are required to report employment and wage information to the appropriate state UI agency four times per year. Approximately 97 percent of total nonfarm employment within the scope of the establishment survey is covered by UI. The UI data are obtained and edited by each state’s Labor Market Information (LMI) agency, and are tabulated and published through the BLS Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program. Both the QCEW and CES categorize their data using the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS).

An employment count for the remaining 3 percent is constructed from alternate sources, primarily records from the Railroad Retirement Board (RRB), as well as County Business Patterns (CBP) and Annual Survey of Public Employment and Payroll (ASPEP) data from the Census Bureau. This 3 percent is referred to as noncovered employment (NCE). The combination of QCEW and NCE employment data make up the benchmark level. The full benchmark employment level developed for March replaces the March sample-based estimate for each basic cell.

The total annual revision is the difference between the benchmark level for a given March and the published March sample-based employment estimate. The overall accuracy of the establishment survey is usually gauged by the size of the benchmark revision, which is often regarded as a proxy for total survey error. Typically, the total revision is equal to the benchmark revision, but in years with historical reconstructions, affected CES series are re-estimated prior to benchmarking. The benchmark revision, in these cases, is the difference between the benchmark level and the newly reconstructed sample-based estimate. The benchmark revision can be more precisely interpreted as the difference between two independently derived employment counts, each subject to its own error sources.

In order to create a continuous time series between the new March benchmark level and historical sample-based data from the prior March benchmark level, employment estimates for the months between the most recent March benchmark and the previous year's benchmark are adjusted using a linear "wedge-back" procedure, which assumes that the total estimation error accumulated at a steady rate since the last benchmark. For the nine months following the March benchmark (also referred to as the post-benchmark period), BLS applies previously derived over-the-month sample changes to the revised March level to get the revised estimates. New net birth-death model forecasts are also calculated and applied during post-benchmark estimation. More information on benchmarks in the CES program is available in the Benchmarks section of the CES Technical Notes, as well as in the October 2017 Monthly Labor Review, "Benchmarking the Current Employment Statistics National Estimates."

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Seasonally adjusted revisions

Table 2 presents revised employment data on a seasonally adjusted basis for March 2019 by major industry sector. The revision to seasonally adjusted total nonfarm employment is −514,000.

Table 2. Seasonally adjusted employment revisions for major industry sectors, March 2019 (in thousands)

CES Industry Code	CES Industry Title	As Revised	As Previously Published	Differences
				Amount	Percent
00-000000	Total nonfarm	150,282	150,796	-514	-0.3
05-000000	Total private	127,754	128,286	-532	-0.4
06-000000	Goods-producing	21,011	21,035	-24	-0.1
07-000000	Service-providing	129,271	129,761	-490	-0.4
08-000000	Private service-providing	106,743	107,251	-508	-0.5
10-000000	Mining and logging	741	756	-15	-2.0
20-000000	Construction	7,443	7,448	-5	-0.1
30-000000	Manufacturing	12,827	12,831	-4	(1)
31-000000	Durable goods	8,056	8,054	2	(1)
32-000000	Nondurable goods	4,771	4,777	-6	-0.1
40-000000	Trade, transportation, and utilities	27,665	27,810	-145	-0.5
41-420000	Wholesale trade	5,880.3	5,921.7	-41.4	-0.7
42-000000	Retail trade	15,642.9	15,801.8	-158.9	-1.0
43-000000	Transportation and warehousing	5,591.6	5,531.6	60	1.1
44-220000	Utilities	550.6	554.7	-4.1	-0.7
50-000000	Information	2,851	2,812	39	1.4
55-000000	Financial activities	8,707	8,637	70	0.8
60-000000	Professional and business services	21,176	21,332	-156	-0.7
65-000000	Education and health services	23,981	24,071	-90	-0.4
70-000000	Leisure and hospitality	16,494	16,678	-184	-1.1
80-000000	Other services	5,869	5,911	-42	-0.7
90-000000	Government	22,528	22,510	18	0.1
Footnotes (1) Absolute revision is less than 0.05 percent.

To Table of Figures

Typically, five years of seasonally adjusted data are revised with each CES annual benchmark. However, reconstructed series are seasonally adjusted over their revised time spans.

For technical information on how seasonal adjustment is performed in the CES program, see the Seasonal Adjustment section of the CES Technical Notes.

For more information on seasonal adjustment model specifications and special model adjustments, see the CES Seasonal Adjustment Files and Documentation page.

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Not seasonally adjusted revisions

Table 3 presents the employment benchmarks for March 2019, not seasonally adjusted, by major industry sector. The total revision to not seasonally adjusted total nonfarm employment is −505,000.

Table 3. Not seasonally adjusted employment benchmarks for major industry sectors, March 2019 (in thousands)

CES Industry Code	CES Industry Title	Benchmark	Estimate	Differences
				Amount	Percent
00-000000	Total nonfarm	149,359	149,864	-505	-0.3
05-000000	Total private	126,473	126,994	-521	-0.4
06-000000	Goods-producing	20,675	20,698	-23	-0.1
07-000000	Service-providing	128,684	129,166	-482	-0.4
08-000000	Private service-providing	105,798	106,296	-498	-0.5
10-000000	Mining and logging	731	746	-15	-2.1
20-000000	Construction	7,170	7,174	-4	-0.1
30-000000	Manufacturing	12,774	12,778	-4	(1)
31-000000	Durable goods	8,039	8,038	1	(1)
32-000000	Nondurable goods	4,735	4,740	-5	-0.1
40-000000	Trade, transportation, and utilities	27,358	27,491	-133	-0.5
41-420000	Wholesale trade	5,857.1	5,895.7	-38.6	-0.7
42-000000	Retail trade	15,425.8	15,576.6	-150.8	-1.0
43-000000	Transportation and warehousing	5,525.3	5,465.6	59.7	1.1
44-220000	Utilities	549.4	553.5	-4.1	-0.7
50-000000	Information	2,838	2,803	35	1.2
55-000000	Financial activities	8,658	8,590	68	0.8
60-000000	Professional and business services	20,908	21,067	-159	-0.8
65-000000	Education and health services	24,113	24,208	-95	-0.4
70-000000	Leisure and hospitality	16,090	16,260	-170	-1.1
80-000000	Other services	5,833	5,877	-44	-0.8
90-000000	Government	22,886	22,870	16	0.1
Footnotes (1) Absolute revision is less than 0.05 percent.

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Benchmarks for more detailed industries can be found at www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbmart-tables.htm.

Table 4 below shows the recent history of not seasonally adjusted total nonfarm percent and level benchmark revisions. Over the prior 10 years, the annual benchmark revision at the total nonfarm level has averaged 0.2 percent (in absolute terms), with a range of −0.7 percent to 0.3 percent.

The differences listed in table 4 and beyond reflect the error due to normal benchmarking procedures after the incorporation of reconstructions. Those years are footnoted.

Table 4. Percent and level differences between nonfarm employment benchmarks and estimates by industry supersector, March 2009 to 2019 (in thousands)

CES Industry Code	CES Industry Title	Type	2009	2010(1)	2011(2)	2012	2013(3)	2014	2015(4)	2016	2017(5)	2018(6)	2019(7)
00-000000	Total nonfarm	Percent	-0.7	-0.3	0.1	0.3	-0.1	(8)	-0.1	-0.1	0.1	(8)	-0.3
		Level	-902	-378	162	424	-119	67	-172	-81	135	-16	-489
05-000000	Total private	Percent	-0.9	-0.4	0.1	0.4	-0.1	0.1	-0.2	-0.1	0.1	-0.1	-0.4
		Level	-933	-391	134	481	-126	105	-232	-151	133	-104	-505
10-000000	Mining and logging	Percent	-3.5	-3.0	-0.4	1.6	-1.2	-1.8	-2.2	-3.2	-4.6	-1.1	-2.1
		Level	-25	-20	-3	13	-10	-16	-19	-22	-30	-8	-15
20-000000	Construction	Percent	-2.9	-1.3	-0.5	1.8	0.3	1.6	0.6	0.7	0.8	0.6	-0.1
		Level	-171	-67	-26	93	14	90	39	47	52	44	-4
30-000000	Manufacturing	Percent	-0.7	-1.0	0.1	-0.2	0.2	0.4	-0.1	0.5	0.1	-0.1	(8)
		Level	-84	-119	9	-25	23	43	-12	58	15	-18	-4
40-000000	Trade, transportation, and utilities	Percent	-1.2	-0.6	0.4	0.6	-0.5	-0.1	(8)	-0.4	0.3	-0.3	-0.4
		Level	-300	-143	95	145	-131	-31	-5	-110	75	-77	-117
41-420000(9)	Wholesale trade	Percent	-1.2	-2.3	-0.2	0.8	-0.4	-0.8	-0.7	-1.1	-0.4	-0.9	-0.7
		Level	-68.0	-124.5	-13.1	45.3	-20.2	-45.4	-41.3	-66.6	-21.2	-54.4	-38.6
42-000000(9)	Retail trade	Percent	-1.6	-0.1	0.6	0.5	-0.8	(8)	-0.2	-0.8	0.1	-0.6	-1.0
		Level	-235.6	-18.4	83.8	78.9	-110.3	5.5	-23.5	-118.2	15.4	-96.4	-150.8
43-000000(9)	Transportation and warehousing	Percent	0.2	0.1	0.5	0.7	0.1	0.2	1.4	1.7	1.6	1.4	1.4
		Level	9.9	3.1	22.4	29.4	3.6	9.7	65.3	83.5	79.8	72.7	75.8
44-220000(9)	Utilities	Percent	-1.2	-0.6	0.5	-1.5	-0.8	-0.1	-0.8	-1.6	0.2	0.3	-0.7
		Level	-6.8	-3.4	2.8	-8.5	-4.6	-0.6	-4.7	-8.7	1	1.8	-4.1
50-000000	Information	Percent	-1.5	-0.4	-0.4	1.8	-0.2	2.4	-1.6	-0.1	2.5	2.1	1.2
		Level	-42	-11	-12	47	-5	66	-44	-2	70	59	35
55-000000	Financial activities	Percent	-0.1	0.4	0.9	0.6	-0.1	0.2	-0.1	(8)	0.1	-0.1	0.8
		Level	-4	34	69	45	-10	19	-9	-4	7	-12	68
60-000000	Professional and business services	Percent	-0.8	(8)	0.7	(8)	(8)	-0.8	-0.6	-0.6	-1.3	-0.4	-0.8
		Level	-137	-3	125	2	4	-147	-110	-125	-270	-72	-159
65-000000	Education and health services	Percent	-0.3	(8)	-0.5	(8)	-0.3	-0.1	(8)	-0.4	0.3	(8)	-0.4
		Level	-56	7	-108	-2	-61	-16	-7	-83	70	5	-95
70-000000	Leisure and hospitality	Percent	-0.6	-0.6	0.7	0.8	0.5	0.3	-0.3	0.7	0.8	(8)	-1.1
		Level	-72	-80	93	104	72	38	-45	102	126	-4	-170
80-000000	Other services	Percent	-0.8	0.2	-2.0	1.1	-0.4	1.1	-0.4	-0.2	0.3	-0.4	-0.8
		Level	-42	11	-108	59	-22	59	-20	-12	18	-21	-44
90-000000	Government	Percent	0.1	0.1	0.1	-0.3	(8)	-0.2	0.3	0.3	(8)	0.4	0.1
		Level	31	13	28	-57	7	-38	60	70	2	88	16
Footnotes (1) With the 2010 benchmark, BLS reconstructed historical national employment levels of all employees for other federal government (91-999900) to reflect corrections to initial counts for temporary and intermittent workers for the 2010 Census. The reconstructions resulted in about 4,000 in employment being added to other federal government. For more information, see the Reconstructions section in the 2010 CES Benchmark Article. (2) A review of industries for the possible presence of noncovered employment yielded 13 additional industries. As a result of including these industries, employment in the amount of 95,000 was added to the benchmark nonfarm level. For more information, see the Changes to noncovered employment section in the 2011 CES Benchmark Article. (3) With the 2013 benchmark, BLS reconstructed several national employment series. Each first quarter, the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program, whose data account for approximately 97 percent of the CES universe scope (see The Sample section of the CES Technical Notes), incorporates updated industry assignments. In 2013, these updates included two substantial groups of nonrandom, noneconomic code changes, one to funds, trusts, and other financial vehicles (NAICS 525), and the other, a reclassification of approximately 466,000 in employment from private households (NAICS 814), which is out of scope for CES, to services for the elderly and persons with disabilities (NAICS 62412), which is in scope. These changes also had an impact, beyond what would be considered typical for a given benchmark year, on corresponding CES series. For more information about the changes to these industries, see the QCEW First Quarter 2013 News Release or the Special notice regarding reconstructed data section in the 2013 CES Benchmark Article. (4) With the 2015 benchmark, BLS reconstructed the national employment series 65-624120, services for the elderly and persons with disabilities back to January 2000. BLS previously reconstructed this series with the 2013 benchmark; however, between the 2013 and 2015 benchmark, a better source of information for the employment within NAICS 62412 for the state of California was found. The inclusion of the reconstructed series resulted in total nonfarm and total private employment that was 27,000 less than the originally published March 2015 estimate level. The difference between the benchmarked and originally published March 2015 estimate level is −199,000 or −0.1 percent. This table displays March 2015 data after accounting for the decrease of 27,000 from the reconstructed series. Similarly, for the education and health services supersector, this table displays March 2015 data after incorporating the reconstructed series. For more information, see the Reconstructions section in the 2015 CES Benchmark Article. (5) With the 2017 benchmark, BLS reconstructed the national employment series 60-561613, security guards and patrols and armored car services back to October 2016 to correct a microdata error. The inclusion of the reconstructed series resulted in total nonfarm and total private employment that was 3,000 more than the originally published March 2017 estimate level. The difference between the benchmarked and originally published March 2017 estimate level is 138,000 or 0.1 percent. This table displays March 2017 data after accounting for the increase of 3,000 from the reconstructed series. Similarly, for the professional and business services supersector, this table displays March 2017 data after incorporating the reconstructed series. For more information, see the Reconstructions section in the 2017 CES Benchmark Article. (6) With the 2018 benchmark, BLS reconstructed several national employment series. A recoding effort in the QCEW resulted in about 336,000 in employment in wholesale trade agents and brokers (41-425120) moving into other series within the wholesale trade, retail trade, transportation and warehousing, and professional and business services major industry sectors. Affected basic series were reconstructed for their entire history, generally back to January 1990. Additionally, a reclassification of a state employer to private ownership caused a shift of about 17,000 in employment from the CES series other state government (90-922999) into services for the elderly and persons with disabilities (65-624120). Affected basic series were reconstructed from March 2018 back to January 2018. For more information, see the Reconstructions section in the 2018 CES Benchmark Article. (7) With the 2019 benchmark, BLS reconstructed some national employment series in transportation to correct an error in rail transportation (43-482000), which had resulted in 16,000 in employment being double counted. The reconstruction removed the doubled-counted employment and affected aggregates of rail transportation, up to and including total nonfarm, back to January 1990. While the difference between the benchmarked and originally published March 2019 estimate level is −505,000, or −0.3 percent, this table displays March 2019 data after accounting for the removal of 16,000 from the published series. For more information, see the Reconstructions section in the 2019 CES Benchmark Article. (8) Absolute revision is less than 0.05 percent. (9) Indented industries are part of trade, transportation, and utilities.

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Benchmark revision effects for other data types

Benchmarking also affects the series for production and nonsupervisory employees (PE) and women employees (WE). There are no benchmark employment levels for these series; they are revised by preserving ratios of employment for the particular data type to the all employee (AE) level prior to benchmarking, and then applying these ratios to the revised all employee level. These figures are calculated at the basic cell level and then aggregated to produce the summary estimates. Average weekly hours (AWH), average hourly earnings (AHE), and, in manufacturing industries, average weekly overtime hours (AWOH) are not benchmarked; they are estimated solely from reports supplied by survey respondents at the basic estimating cell level. New employment benchmarks can additionally affect indirectly estimated data types. For more information on indirectly estimated data types, see the Available Data section in the CES Technical Notes.

Table 5 lists directly estimated data types and their common abbreviations. Directly estimated data types except for AE are collectively called non-AE data types.

Table 5. Directly estimated data types

Data Type	Abbreviation
All employees	AE
Production and nonsupervisory employees	PE
Women employees	WE
Average weekly hours of all employees	AE AWH
Average hourly earnings of all employees	AE AHE
Average weekly overtime hours of all employees	AE AWOH
Average weekly hours of production and nonsupervisory employees	PE AWH
Average hourly earnings of production and nonsupervisory employees	PE AHE
Average weekly overtime hours of production and nonsupervisory employees	PE AWOH

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The aggregate industry levels of the hours and earnings series are derived as a weighted average. AE and PE estimates for basic cells act as weights for their respective hours and earnings estimates for broader industry groupings. Adjustments of AE estimates to new benchmarks may alter the implicit weights used for both AE and PE hours and earnings, which, in turn, may change the estimates for both AE and PE hours and earnings at higher levels of aggregation.

Generally, new employment benchmarks have little effect on hours and earnings estimates for major industry groupings. To influence the hours and earnings estimates of a broader industry group, employment revisions have to be relatively large and must affect industries that have hours or earnings averages that are substantially different from those of other industries in their broader group.

Table 6 and table 7 provide information on the not seasonally adjusted levels of major industry sector hours and earnings series resulting from the March 2019 benchmark. At the total private level, average weekly hours estimates for AE increased by 0.1 hours and there was no change in average weekly hours estimates for PE from the previously published level. Total private average hourly earnings increased by 5 cents for AE and increased by 4 cents for PE from the previously published level.

Benchmark effects on hours and earnings for more detailed industries can be found at www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbmart-tables.htm.

Table 6. Effect of March 2019 benchmark revisions to all employee average weekly hours and average hourly earnings estimates, major industry sectors

CES Industry Code	CES Industry Title	Average Weekly Hours			Average Hourly Earnings
		Estimated(1)	Revised	Difference	Estimated(1)	Revised	Difference
05-000000	Total private	34.2	34.3	0.1	$27.74	$27.79	$0.05
06-000000	Goods-producing	40.2	40.2	.0	28.73	28.72	-.01
08-000000	Private service-providing	33.1	33.1	.0	27.50	27.57	.07
10-000000	Mining and logging	46.0	46.0	.0	33.36	33.21	-.15
20-000000	Construction	38.8	38.8	.0	30.48	30.51	.03
30-000000	Manufacturing	40.6	40.6	.0	27.48	27.46	-.02
31-000000	Durable goods	41.0	41.0	.0	28.90	28.88	-.02
32-000000	Nondurable goods	39.9	39.8	-.1	25.00	24.98	-.02
40-000000	Trade, transportation, and utilities	34.0	34.0	.0	24.00	24.01	.01
41-420000	Wholesale trade	38.7	38.7	.0	31.15	31.08	-.07
42-000000	Retail trade	30.3	30.3	.0	19.40	19.42	.02
43-000000	Transportation and warehousing	38.3	38.4	.1	24.56	24.60	.04
44-220000	Utilities	42.2	42.2	.0	42.22	42.14	-.08
50-000000	Information	35.9	35.9	.0	41.59	41.81	.22
55-000000	Financial activities	37.4	37.4	.0	35.45	35.43	-.02
60-000000	Professional and business services	36.0	36.0	.0	33.36	33.42	.06
65-000000	Education and health services	32.8	32.8	.0	27.49	27.56	.07
70-000000	Leisure and hospitality	26.0	26.0	.0	16.46	16.46	.00
80-000000	Other services	31.8	31.8	.0	25.00	25.24	.24
Footnotes (1) With the 2019 benchmark, CES reconstructed several series. The effects of these reconstructions are included in this table. For more information, see the Reconstructions section in the 2019 CES Benchmark Article.

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Table 7. Effect of March 2019 benchmark revisions to production and nonsupervisory employee average weekly hours and average hourly earnings estimates, major industry sectors

CES Industry Code	CES Industry Title	Average Weekly Hours			Average Hourly Earnings
		Estimated(1)	Revised	Difference	Estimated(1)	Revised	Difference
05-000000	Total private	33.5	33.5	0.0	$23.27	$23.31	$0.04
06-000000	Goods-producing	40.9	40.9	.0	24.43	24.43	.00
08-000000	Private service-providing	32.2	32.3	.1	23.02	23.07	.05
10-000000	Mining and logging	46.8	46.7	-.1	29.58	29.50	-.08
20-000000	Construction	39.2	39.2	.0	28.21	28.24	.03
30-000000	Manufacturing	41.6	41.6	.0	21.97	21.96	-.01
31-000000	Durable goods	42.0	42.0	.0	22.89	22.89	.00
32-000000	Nondurable goods	40.9	40.9	.0	20.42	20.41	-.01
40-000000	Trade, transportation, and utilities	33.5	33.6	.1	20.47	20.48	.01
41-420000	Wholesale trade	38.5	38.5	.0	25.91	25.86	-.05
42-000000	Retail trade	30.1	30.1	.0	16.40	16.42	.02
43-000000	Transportation and warehousing	37.5	37.5	.0	22.30	22.33	.03
44-220000	Utilities	42.4	42.4	.0	36.79	36.76	-.03
50-000000	Information	35.2	35.2	.0	33.12	33.25	.13
55-000000	Financial activities	36.7	36.7	.0	27.44	27.43	-.01
60-000000	Professional and business services	35.2	35.2	.0	27.44	27.48	.04
65-000000	Education and health services	32.1	32.1	.0	24.13	24.19	.06
70-000000	Leisure and hospitality	24.8	24.8	.0	14.41	14.41	.00
80-000000	Other services	30.7	30.8	.1	21.18	21.39	.21
Footnotes (1) With the 2019 benchmark, CES reconstructed several series. The effects of these reconstructions are included in this table. For more information, see the Reconstructions section in the 2019 CES Benchmark Article.

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Summary of research into sources of the revision

The difference between CES estimates and the population employment results from various sources, and disaggregating it into its components is complex. BLS examined potential sources of error in both the CES estimates and the QCEW-based portion of the employment benchmark. Both are subject to nonresponse and reporting error. Additionally, the CES estimates are subject to sampling error and business birth-death modeling error. A profile of the differences and an analysis of potential sources of error are outlined below.

CES and population differences

Differences between the CES estimates and population employment levels were analyzed by industry detail and month over the benchmark year. Typically, industry supersectors can exhibit positive or negative benchmark revisions within a benchmark year, which can offset at the total nonfarm level. For the 2019 benchmark, however, the supersector level revisions did not offset, resulting in a larger-than-normal downward revision for total nonfarm. As shown in table 3, professional and business services and leisure and hospitality experienced the largest negative revisions, although several other sectors also contributed to the overall downward total nonfarm revision.

In addition to the March 2019 comparison, exhibit 1 summarizes the tracking of CES estimates and population employment between March 2018 and March 2019. The series have different seasonal patterns, so it is more informative to compare differences in over-the-year change for individual months. Exhibit 1 shows that CES estimates were higher than the population at the outset, but the difference accelerated in December 2018 and into the first quarter of 2019. Despite this, no changes to the population inputs were found and no significant errors were identified.

Exhibit 1. Monthly over-the-year change for total nonfarm employment from April 2018 to March 2019, not seasonally adjusted (in thousands)

	2018									2019
	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Population	2,175	2,232	2,246	2,380	2,529	2,393	2,411	2,445	2,249	2,464	2,182	1,991
CES(1)	2,280	2,419	2,477	2,467	2,654	2,606	2,653	2,601	2,677	2,867	2,483	2,496
Difference	-105	-187	-231	-87	-125	-213	-242	-156	-428	-403	-301	-505
Footnotes (1) CES estimates are pre-benchmark 2019.

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QCEW imputation

Every quarter, the QCEW program imputes employment for UI accounts where reports were not received or were received but contained only wage information and no employment data. Typically, only a small concentration of worksites and employment are imputed. In the first quarter of 2019, about 5 percent of establishments in the QCEW were imputed, representing about 2 percent of employment. This level of imputed employment had little variance over the last five years and is historically low. BLS reviewed the QCEW imputation process to see if it could be a factor in the divergence between CES and QCEW over-the-year employment trends. There were no changes in the imputation process, nor any indication that imputation significantly caused the divergence between CES estimates and QCEW employment levels.

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Revisions to net birth-death

The CES sample alone is not sufficient for estimating the total nonfarm employment level because each month new firms generate employment that cannot be captured through the sample. There is an unavoidable lag between a firm opening for business and its appearance on the CES sample frame. The sample frame is built from UI quarterly tax records. These records cover virtually all U.S. employers and include business births, but they only become available for updating the CES sampling frame seven to nine months after the reference month. After the births appear on the frame, there is also time required for sampling, contacting, and soliciting cooperation from the firm, and verifying the initial data provided. In practice, BLS cannot sample and begin to collect data from new firms until they are at least a year old.

BLS has researched both sample-based and model-based approaches to measuring business births and deaths that have not yet appeared on the UI universe frame. The research demonstrated that sampling for births was not feasible in the very short CES production timeframes, so BLS uses a model-based approach to account for this employment. This model incorporates two components; the first component is an indirect imputation for business deaths and the second component is an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) time series model designed to estimate the net birth-death employment not accounted for by the imputation from the first component. More information on the CES birth-death model is available in the Birth-Death Model section of the CES Technical Notes.

Forecasted vs. actual net birth-death

Only error from the second component is directly measurable. Error from this component is measured by comparing the actual net of births and deaths with the model-based forecast that was used in the CES sample-based estimates. Most recently, the data from April 2018 to March 2019 can be measured. As table 8 shows, the actual net birth-death for April 2018 to March 2019 was approximately 10,000 above the forecasted amount used in the CES monthly estimates for the same period.

Table 8. Differences between forecasted and actual net birth-death, total private employment, April 2018 to March 2019 (in thousands)

Benchmark 2019	2018									2019			Total
	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Actual Net Birth-Death	318	224	126	191	87	-91	329	-36	-80	-161	148	23	1,078
Forecast Net Birth-Death	275	215	112	171	105	-61	275	-5	-32	-175	137	51	1,068
Difference	43	9	14	20	-18	-30	54	-31	-48	14	11	-28	10
Cumulative Difference	43	52	66	86	68	38	92	61	13	27	38	10

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Net birth-death adjustments to the post-benchmark period

From April 2019 to December 2019, also known as the post-benchmark period, estimates were recalculated for each month based primarily on new benchmark levels and new net birth-death forecasts. Net birth-death forecasts were revised to incorporate information from the most recent year of universe employment counts. Table 9 shows the net birth-death values for the supersectors over the post-benchmark period. From April 2019 to December 2019, the net birth-death model cumulatively added 1,042,000, compared with 958,000 in the previously published April 2019 to December 2019 employment estimates.

Table 9. Net birth-death forecasts by industry supersector, April to December 2019 (in thousands)

CES Industry Code	CES Industry Title	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Cumulative Total
10-000000	Mining and logging	-1	1	1	1	1	0	1	0	0	4
20-000000	Construction	33	40	25	9	10	4	23	-11	-13	120
30-000000	Manufacturing	1	7	4	-2	3	2	5	3	1	24
40-000000	Trade, transportation, and utilities	9	22	8	10	14	7	38	7	4	119
41-420000(1)	Wholesale trade	-2	3	-2	-1	2	-2	8	2	0	8
42-000000(1)	Retail trade	8	13	6	8	7	4	20	-4	-1	61
43-000000(1)	Transportation and warehousing	3	6	4	3	5	5	10	9	5	50
44-220000(1)	Utilities	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
50-000000	Information	3	5	1	5	2	0	9	4	-1	28
55-000000	Financial activities	3	6	2	8	3	-7	28	2	7	52
60-000000	Professional and business services	94	19	-5	49	21	-24	104	2	-28	232
65-000000	Education and health services	43	15	-19	32	17	-4	67	10	-12	149
70-000000	Leisure and hospitality	83	86	86	75	20	-50	17	-31	-6	280
80-000000	Other services	14	8	6	-1	4	-3	12	-2	-4	34
Total private net birth-death adjustment		282	209	109	186	95	-75	304	-16	-52	1,042
Footnotes (1) Indented industries are part of trade, transportation, and utilities.

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Research conclusions

Early research and analysis into the components of error has concluded the net birth-death model contributed only a small piece to the total survey error. Although some quarters and industries had larger revisions relative to others, it is less clear that the overall revision can be attributed to a single quarter or industry. The difference in employment growth between the CES estimates and the population in December 2018 and into the first quarter of 2019 requires further investigation. BLS and the CES program will continue to research the possible causes of error within the payroll survey and their impacts on benchmark revisions.

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Reconstructions

In addition to the regular benchmark revisions, CES employment, hours, and earnings estimates are sometimes reconstructed in order to avoid series breaks and provide users with continuous, comparable employment time series suitable for economic analysis. Reconstructions may be necessary to correct processing errors, reporting errors, changes in scope, or to address other issues that may cause breaks in CES time series that are not economic in nature. The reconstructions that were incorporated with this year’s annual benchmark are described below.

Rail transportation processing error

Several CES series in transportation and warehousing (43-000000) were reconstructed to account for the release of more detailed and accurate data from the Railroad Retirement Board (RRB). Two separate, but related, issues resulted in two reconstructions within this industry.

Basic-level reconstruction methods

The first reconstruction removed employment that was being double counted in rail transportation’s (43-482000) history from 1990-2019. The updated RRB data revealed that they were reporting overlapping data with states’ LMI agencies for commuter rail transportation, which led to double counting of employment in this industry. Historical data for this error was only available back to 2003; therefore, a ratio of the amount being double counted for March 2019 was generated and applied to the history of rail transportation back to 2003 to calculate the amount of employment to remove from each month. The difference in January 2003 was wedged back to 1990 in order to gradually align the more recent data with historical pre-1990 data. In total, this reconstruction removed 16,000 in employment from rail transportation and all of its aggregates, including total nonfarm, in March 2019.

The second reconstruction redistributed transportation employment into correct NAICS codes based on RRB’s updated classification system. After removing the double-counted employment from rail transportation and wedging back the January 2003 difference, additional employment was moved out of rail transportation and into urban, interurban, rural, and charter bus transportation (43-485500) and support activities for other transportation, including rail (43-488900). Furthermore, some employment was removed from urban, interurban, rural, and charter bus transportation and placed into support activities for other transportation, including rail. Ratios were calculated for the amounts of employment moving out of each series for March 2019, then applied to their histories back to 1990. The monthly amounts removed were then added to the correct industry from March 2019 back to January 1990. All other published data types for these industries were adjusted to account for the change, including AE hours and earnings, PE, PE hours and earnings, and WE. More detail on both reconstructions is provided in exhibit 2.

Exhibit 2. Not seasonally adjusted AE series changes as a result of the two reconstructions in rail transportation

CES Industry Code	CES Industry Title	March 2019 AE Change (in thousands)
		Due to Double Count	Due to Employment Moved from 43-482000	Due to Employment Moved from 43-485500	Total Change in Employment
00-000000	Total nonfarm	-16.0	0.0	0.0	-16.0
05-000000	Total private	-16.0	0.0	0.0	-16.0
07-000000	Service-providing	-16.0	0.0	0.0	-16.0
08-000000	Private service-providing	-16.0	0.0	0.0	-16.0
40-000000	Trade, transportation, and utilities	-16.0	0.0	0.0	-16.0
43-000000	Transportation and warehousing	-16.1	0.0	0.0	-16.1
43-482000	Rail transportation	-16.1	-16.4	0.0	-32.5
43-485000	Transit and ground passenger transportation	0.0	10.3	-4.4	5.9
43-485500	Urban, interurban, rural, and charter bus transportation	0.0	10.3	-4.4	5.9
43-488000	Support activities for transportation	0.0	6.1	4.4	10.5
43-488900	Support activities for other transportation, including rail	0.0	6.1	4.4	10.5

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Aggregate-level reconstruction methods

After removing the double-counted employment in rail transportation, CES series for all data types were re-aggregated back to 1990. Reconstructed basic series were summed to aggregate levels using the normal CES aggregation methods (see the Aggregation Procedures section in the CES Technical Notes). Consequently, unadjusted aggregate employment series and hours and earnings series are subject to change from the detailed aggregate series to the major industry sector levels for trade, transportation, and utilities; private service-providing; service-providing; total private; and total nonfarm. Not seasonally adjusted employment for transportation and warehousing and its aggregates are only affected by the double count.

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Financial activities recoding

A recoding of employers in the first quarter of 2019 in the QCEW resulted in changes to the industries in which those businesses are classified. Several large changes were observed in financial activities, necessitating reconstructions of CES data in commercial banking (55-522110), savings institutions (55-522120), credit card issuing (55-522210), real estate credit (55-522292), and financial transaction processing and clearing (55-522320).

Basic-level reconstruction methods

In March 2019, AE for commercial banking gained 49,700 in employment from savings institutions, credit card issuing, real estate credit, and financial transaction processing and clearing. Ratios of the amount of employment that were moving into commercial banking to the total amount of employment in the source industry for March 2019 were created. Those ratios were then applied to the entire history of the industry, back to 1990, to find the amounts of employment to remove from each series. The total of those amounts for each month was added to commercial banking.

All other data types published for these industries were adjusted to account for the change including AE hours and earnings, PE, PE hours and earnings, and WE. Average weekly hours and average hourly earnings were recalculated by applying the same ratios to the amount of old total hours and old total payroll to move the correct amount of hours or earnings into the new CES industry. Total hours and total earnings summed for the new industries were then averaged using the new employment levels. More information about the calculation of CES employment, hours, and earnings estimates is available in the CES Technical Notes under Estimation Methods. All affected industries and the change in AE are listed in exhibit 3.

Exhibit 3. Not seasonally adjusted AE changes as a result of recoding in financial activities

CES Industry Code	CES Industry	March 2019 AE Change (in thousands)	Ratio of Change (%)
55-522100	Depository credit intermediation	33.7	(1)
55-522110	Commercial banking	49.7	(1)
55-522120	Savings institutions	-16.0	-14.4
55-522200	Nondepository credit intermediation	-28.0	(1)
55-522210	Credit card issuing	-15.3	-18.3
55-522290	Other nondepository credit intermediation	-12.7	(1)
55-522292	Real estate credit	-12.7	-5.4
55-522300	Activities related to credit intermediation	-5.7	(1)
55-522320	Financial transaction processing and clearing	-5.7	-4.2
Footnotes (1) Ratios are only applied at the most detailed level of employment. Employment change for this series was calculated from the employment removed from the detailed series.

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Aggregate-level reconstruction methods

Reconstructed basic series were summed to aggregate levels using the normal CES aggregation methods (see the Aggregation Procedures section in the CES Technical Notes). Consequently, employment, hours, and earnings are subject to change for the aggregate series credit intermediation and related activities (55-522000).

Seasonal adjustment in reconstructed series

For all series affected by the reconstructions of employment, hours, and earnings, the corresponding seasonally adjusted series were also subject to change from 1990 to 2019. Aggregate industries as well as component series used in indirect seasonal adjustment are also subject to change. More information about seasonal adjustment of CES series is available in the CES Technical Notes under Seasonal Adjustment.

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Changes to the CES published series

With the release of the January 2020 first preliminary estimates on February 7, 2020, BLS incorporated series changes related to annual sample adequacy and disclosure review.

Series changes due to annual sample review

All CES series are evaluated annually for sample size, coverage, and response rates. The following changes result from a re-evaluation of the sample and universe coverage for CES industries, which are based on the 2017 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS). Some industries no longer have sufficient sample to be estimated and published separately and were discontinued or combined with other similar industries for estimation and publication purposes. This information is also available at www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesnewseries.htm.

A list of currently published CES series is available at www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesseriespub.htm.

Table 10. Series with CES Industry Code or Title Changes

There are no series with industry code or title changes.

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In order to more easily identify affected series and because AE series are published at a more detailed industry level than non-AE series, series changes are shown for AE and non-AE data types. The first two tables in this section reference the AE data type and the third table references all non-AE data types. The tables display an AE collapse and discontinued series for AE and non-AE data types. Discontinued series tables (table 11 and table 13) display series for which the data types noted are no longer published. The collapsed series table (table 12) displays series for which the data types noted are no longer published because the industry no longer has sufficient sample to be estimated and published separately. Affected industries have been combined with other similar industries for estimation and publication purposes. Historical data for these series were reconstructed to provide consistent time series. Industries that are no longer published for AE will also no longer be published for other directly estimated data types or derivative series.

Table 11. Discontinued all employees series

NAICS Code	CES Industry Code	CES Industry Title	Next Highest Published Industry
331511	31-331511	Iron foundries	Ferrous metal foundries (31-331510)
333111	31-333111	Farm machinery and equipment	Agricultural implements (31-333110)
334111	31-334111	Electronic computers	Computer and peripheral equipment (31-334100)
334112,8	31-334118	Computer storage devices, terminals, and other peripheral equipment	Computer and peripheral equipment (31-334100)
33421	31-334210	Telephone apparatus	Communications equipment (31-334200)
33611	31-336110	Automobiles and light trucks	Motor vehicles (31-336100)
336112	31-336112	Light trucks and utility vehicles	Motor vehicles (31-336100)
33612	31-336120	Heavy duty trucks	Motor vehicles (31-336100)
32551	32-325510	Paints and coatings	Paints, coatings, and adhesives (32-325500)
48841	43-488410	Motor vehicle towing	Support activities for road transportation (43-488400)
532282	55-532282	Video tape and disc rental	Consumer goods rental (55-532200)
541191	60-541191	Title abstract and settlement offices	Other legal services (60-541190)

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Table 12. Collapsed all employees series

Previous			New
NAICS Code	CES Industry Code	CES Industry Title	NAICS Code	CES Industry Code	CES Industry Title
33634	31-336340	Motor vehicle brake systems	33634,9	31-336390	All other motor vehicle parts
33639	31-336390	All other motor vehicle parts

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Table 13. Discontinued series other than all employees

NAICS Code	CES Industry Code	CES Industry Title	Discontinued From Publication	Next Highest Published Industry
2121	10-212100	Coal mining	PE, PE AWH, PE AHE	Mining, except oil and gas (10-212000)
32192	31-321920	Wood containers and pallets	PE, PE AWH, PE AHE	Other wood products (31-321900)
32199	31-321990	All other wood products	PE, PE AWH, PE AHE	Other wood products (31-321900)
332321	31-332321	Metal windows and doors	WE	Ornamental and architectural metal products (31-332320)
332323	31-332323	Ornamental and architectural metal work	WE	Ornamental and architectural metal products (31-332320)
333111	31-333111	Farm machinery and equipment	AE AWH, AE AHE, PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, WE, AE AWOH, PE AWOH	Agricultural, construction, and mining machinery (31-333100)
3341	31-334100	Computer and peripheral equipment	AE AWH, AE AHE, WE	Computer and electronic products (31-334000)
33422	31-334220	Broadcast and wireless communications equipment	WE	Communications equipment (31-334200)
334413	31-334413	Semiconductors and related devices	PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, AE AWOH	Semiconductors and electronic components (31-334400)
33637	31-336370	Motor vehicle metal stamping	PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, PE AWOH	Motor vehicle parts (31-336300)
33639	31-336390	All other motor vehicle parts	AE AWH, AE AHE, PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, WE, AE AWOH, PE AWOH	Motor vehicle parts (31-336300)
3132	32-313200	Fabric mills	AE AWH, AE AHE, AE AWOH	Textile mills (32-313000)
3252	32-325200	Resin, rubber, and artificial fibers	PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, AE AWOH, PE AWOH	Chemicals (32-325000)
44815	42-448150	Clothing accessories stores	PE, PE AWH, PE AHE	Clothing stores (42-488100)
486	43-486000	Pipeline transportation	PE, PE AWH, PE AHE	Transportation and warehousing (43-000000)
48841	43-488410	Motor vehicle towing	AE AWH, AE AHE, WE	Support activities for road transportation (43-488400)
541191	60-541191	Title abstract and settlement offices	AE AWH, AE AHE, PE, PE AWH, PE AHE, WE	Other legal services (60-541190)
541713	60-541713	Research and development in nanotechnology	AE AWH, AE AHE, WE	Research and development in the physical, engineering, and life sciences (60-541710)
541714	60-541714	Research and development in biotechnology, except nanobiotechnology	AE AWH, AE AHE, WE	Research and development in the physical, engineering, and life sciences (60-541710)
621111	60-621111	Offices of physicians, except mental health	PE, PE AWH, PE AHE	Offices of physicians (65-621100)
621112	60-621112	Offices of mental health physicians	PE, PE AWH, PE AHE	Offices of physicians (65-621100)

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Availability of revised data

LABSTAT, the BLS public database, contains all historical employment, hours, and earnings data revised as a result of this benchmark, including both not seasonally adjusted and seasonally adjusted data. The data can be accessed at www.bls.gov/ces/data/home.htm, the CES National Database page.

Previously published data are available on both a not seasonally adjusted and seasonally adjusted basis for all CES industries down to the 3-digit level from the CES Vintage Data page. CES vintage data are typically updated in late February following the annual benchmark revision.

Benchmarks for detailed industries can be found at www.bls.gov/web/empsit/cesbmart-tables.htm.

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Table of figures

Tables

• Table 1. Differences in seasonally adjusted levels and over-the-month changes, total nonfarm employment, January to December 2019 (in thousands)
• Table 2. Seasonally adjusted employment revisions for major industry sectors, March 2019 (in thousands)
• Table 3. Not seasonally adjusted employment benchmarks for major industry sectors, March 2019 (in thousands)
• Table 4. Percent and level differences between nonfarm employment benchmarks and estimates by industry supersector, March 2009 to 2019 (in thousands)
• Table 5. Directly estimated data types
• Table 6. Effect of March 2019 benchmark revisions to all employee average weekly hours and average hourly earnings estimates, major industry sectors
• Table 7. Effect of March 2019 benchmark revisions to production and nonsupervisory employee average weekly hours and average hourly earnings estimates, major industry sectors
• Table 8. Differences between forecasted and actual net birth-death, total private employment, April 2018 to March 2019 (in thousands)
• Table 9. Net birth-death forecasts by industry supersector, April to December 2019 (in thousands)
• Table 10. Series with CES industry code or title changes
• Table 11. Discontinued all employees series
• Table 12. Collapsed all employees series
• Table 13. Discontinued series other than all employees

Exhibits

• Exhibit 1. Monthly over-the-year change for total nonfarm employment from April 2018 to March 2019, not seasonally adjusted (in thousands)
• Exhibit 2. Not seasonally adjusted AE series changes as a result of the two reconstructions in rail transportation
• Exhibit 3. Not seasonally adjusted AE changes as a result of recoding in financial activities

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Last Modified Date: February 7, 2020